Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +2.9% 2) Electrification +2.4% 3) Utilities +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• URI, TXN, EQPT, PENN, HRI, HELE, STM, WST, APLD, SEDG, MOH, ON, MCHP, GSHD, NXT, NUCL, CMCSA, WCN, LBRT, R, VELO, VC, CHDN, UNP, VC, PKG, IREN, THRM, KDP, NEE, NXPI, CSX, CX, INBX, DOV, CX, OKLO, SEIC, RDY, TFIN, ORA, HXL, BANR, CAMT, WSC, VOYA, MRLN, WSC, MRVL, STVN, NOK, ARM, KNX, SON, STC, FBNC, ERAS, CACI, FCFS, DIOD, GEV, VLY, PTEN and CURB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NMAX 2) ASST 3) KDP 4) CGC 5) ASHR 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) POET 2) GEV 3) MCRI 4) TLRY 5) MAS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) XLK 3) ARKK 4) IFRA 5) DRAM

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APOG)/.88
• (CHTR)/9.88
• (GNTX)/.45
• (HCA)/7.12
• (NSC)/2.49
• (PG)/1.56
• (SLB)/.51
• (CRI)/.11 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for April. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 15.0 in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bloomberg April US Economic Survey, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, International Society for Hart/Lung Transplantation Meeting, (CBSH) annual meeting, (BMI) annual meeting, (SWK) annual meeting, (ABT) annual meeting and the (GGG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 -1.9
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 41.4% of Issues Advancing, 56.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.66 +7.8%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$57.8M
  
• 123 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 58.0% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -1.8

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 90+ days 69.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extended by April 26th 54.0% -10.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 32.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 48.0% -11.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 113.4 -.05%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% -3.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 506.25 +13.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.9 -1.8%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.9 -1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.9% +13.0%
• Vix 19.9 +4.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -5.0%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is solidifying the US dollar’s dominant role in global trade, according to one measure of activity in the interbank foreign-exchange markets.
• South Korea’s economy rebounded strongly at the start of the year on the back of export growth fueled by global demand for artificial intelligence technology. 
• EXCLUSIVE: SoftBank is seeking a $10 billion loan backed by OpenAI shares, adding debt to fuel its AI push.
• Microsoft announced its biggest-ever investment in Australia, pledging to spend A$25 billion ($17.9 billion) by the end of 2029 as it pushes deeper into the artificial intelligence market in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Tesla plans to spend roughly $3 billion to build a research chip factory in Texas, according to CEO Elon Musk, an early phase of an effort to establish chip manufacturing at a massive scale.
• The number of websites illegally selling access to child sex abuse images more than doubled last year, according to new research from the UK authority responsible for finding and removing such material from the internet.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @ZeroHedge

• Navy Secretary John Phelan Abruptly Departs Trump Admin With No Explanation, "Effective Immediately".
• After The Bombing, Tehran Confronts Widespread Ruin.
• Voting Rights Groups Sue To Stop DOJ From Collecting State Voter Lists.
• Harvard Creates Robot Ants That Work Like Real Insects To Build And Dismantle Complex Structures.   
• Here's How Trump Can Nuke Virginia's New Gerrymandered Map... 
• The line now circulating in Tehran’s political circles is that Washington has quietly agreed to suspend enforcement of the blockade, without publicly acknowledging it, and that talks could begin as early as Saturday, or by Monday at the latest. That may prove accurate. But it may also be a narrative deliberately floated by the regime itself to manufacture a face-saving path into negotiations, while allowing it to present the move to its support base as an American retreat rather than an Iranian concession. The situation remains highly fluid and could shift at any moment. I am separately hearing that Iran may have accepted a 15-year halt to enrichment and an end to arms transfers to its proxies, although there is reportedly still no final agreement on continued financial support for them. 
• Tit-For-Tat Assaults On Shipping Widen: US Intercepts 3 More 'Illicit' Tankers In Asian Waters, Iran Seizes Additional 2 In Hormuz.
• TSLA preparing Gigafactory Texas for the Optimus 2nd gen line, which is being designed for long-term annual production capacity of 10 million robots.
• Stocks Shrug Off Surging Oil Prices, Bitcoin Rips As Tehran Turbocharges Tensions With Trump.

• @CNBC 

• Asia markets set to edge higher as Iran ceasefire extension lifts mood.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• SK Hynix posts record first-quarter profit, in line with estimates as memory prices climb.
• S&P futures are little changed following another record-setting day for benchmark: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines and more.

• @TheTranscript 

• Texas Instruments CEO: "Revenue increased 9% sequentially and 19% from the same quarter a year ago with growth led by industrial and data center". $TXN: +7% AH.
• United Rentals CEO: "The increases to our full-year guidance are supported by the momentum we are carrying into our busy season and the growth opportunities our customers see on the horizon, particularly within large projects and key verticals." $UTI: +13% AH.
• IBM CEO: "The first quarter was a strong start to the year with broad-based revenue growth across our segments." CFO: "Our solid revenue growth, portfolio mix and productivity initiatives drove double-digit profit. and FCF growth in the quarter". $IBM: -8% AH. 
• ServiceNow CEO: "ServiceNow’s Q1 26 performance beat the high end of our guidance once again." CFO: "In Q1 26, we exceeded the high end of our topline and profitability guidance metrics, grew FCF, and returned capital to shareholders." $NOW: -13% AH. 
• Lam Research double beat. CEO: "Lam delivered record revenue and EPS in the March quarter as AI-driven demand reshapes the semiconductor industry". $LRCX: +4% AH. 
• CSX CEO: "CSX performed well this quarter..." $CSX: +6% AH. 
• Tesla double beat. "We saw continued growth in demand for our vehicles in markets in APAC and South America, while also seeing a rebound of demand in both EMEA and North America." $TSLA: +4% AH. 

• @TheSCIF

• Looks like mail-in ballots were used again to rig the election in Virginia. The vote count also jumped 64,000 "yes" votes in 5 mins. Sometimes, you have to let them show you how they cheat, to catch them cheating, to charge them for cheating. (pic)

• @Laralogan

• I look around me as I travel across this beautiful country and I am struck by one terrifying thought: How many of these people going about their daily lives know how close we are to losing all of it? And freedom itself? Closer than we have ever been to the day when our children and grandchildren will not even know what freedom is. Find your strength, your moral courage and your faith. And pay proper attention. Our good options are literally disappearing every day, running like water through our hands as we sing in our chains like the sea.

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: A Virginia Circuit Court has just ruled yesterday's redistricting vote UNCONSTITUTIONAL, and has issued an injunction BLOCKING the results from being certified, per @KenCuccinelli. This is BIG. It’s NOT over yet! It's very likely this will end up at the state Supreme Court, who will make the final decision. Keep fighting! (video)

• @MinutesOfHorror

• Another Nasa scientist dies, this time it was James Moffatta along with his family in a plane crash. This is coming a day after UFO researcher David Wilcocks supposedly took himself out.

• @Liz_Churchill10

• The Bill Gates Vaccine Cartel attacks FRANCE… FRENCH POLICE DEPLOY THERMAL DRONES TO HUNT DOWN HIDDEN CATTLE…for Farmers that REFUSE to vaccinate… The Police are RAIDING farms and force-injecting the herds. THEY’RE POISONING THE FOOD SUPPLY ON PURPOSE. (video)

• @bmarcois

• Ex-CIA Officer to Trump: “Ban the voting machines!” Pres. Trump can use PPD-21, which says election systems part of critical infrastructure, to ban the machines and require paper ballots, hand-counted with public observers. It’s a start. A Minute With Bart. (video)

• @turningpointjpn

• Scary... Just showering with contact lenses in led to blindness. → American Grace was staying in the Dominican Republic and took a bath there while wearing her contact lenses. → During the bath, a parasite entered her cornea through the lenses. → The cause was keratitis due to Acanthamoeba, a microorganism lurking in water. → On top of that, an initial misdiagnosis, and the use of steroid eye drops caused symptoms to worsen dramatically, leading to the loss of her left eye in just one week. → "It's fine because the water is clean" doesn't hold up. Acanthamoeba exists in water sources around the world. (video)

• @jjverdi

• So in basically a 50-50 vote the Democrats just disenfranchised Virginia voters 91-9. Don’t ever lecture us about democracy again. It’s a tyrannical party that values power over people. They hate you. Even if you’re one of them. You’re a useful idiot and nothing more. (map)

• @FSociety_1942

• Here is another metric about yesterday's election... I (and I have noted others) have laser-beamed on Fairfax County. Well, look at this. These are the top 15 counties who voted "yes", ordered by their "share" of the current margin (which is about 100,000 votes). Stick with me here, please, to do this I calculated how many more "yes" votes than "no", and then divided that into the 100,000 difference. You will see that Fairfax contributed 149% towards the "yes" victory. Why is this more than 100%? Because there were many counties who voted for "no" and these offset the "yes" counties. Bottom line, I haven't seen anything this extreme. Ever. (table)

• @TonySeruga

• Guess who is obstructing the prosecution of the grand conspiracy probe (the ongoing grand jury investigation into alleged Obama/Biden-era weaponization of intelligence and law enforcement against Trump, centered on Russiagate/Crossfire Hurricane origins)? The
  @TheJusticeDept, even under @AGPamBondi, was pedal to the metal, but @LeaderJohnThune is slow walking the fully unredacted transcripts, records, and documents from the Senate Judiciary and Intelligence Committees.

• @_aussie17

• BREAKING - NOW IN IRAQ! Massive fire at Erbil oil refinery after alleged attack! 7 CONSECUTIVE ENERGY INCIDENTS IN 7 DAYS! 15 Apr → Australia's Geelong Refinery. 16 Apr → Pakistan blast (8 dead). 18 Apr → Russia's Tuapse refineries. 20 Apr → India HPCL Rajasthan. 20 Apr → Texas oil well explosion. 20 Apr → Romania CET Vest blast. 22 Apr BREAKING → Erbil refinery fire! What the heck is happening! (video)

• @RobbyStarbuck

• I mean this is just a straight up crime out in the open. They’re not even pretending. Full mask off. Virginia is lying to voters. SCOTUS must immediately intervene after this BS wins, because it’ll definitely win the way that it’s written. Outright cheating. (pic)

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• Four months before Charlie Kirk was murdered, the SPLC placed TPUSA on their hate map next to the KKK and neo-nazis... Now, we learn the SPLC was secretly funneling millions to the KKK and neo-nazis. Truly evil people. (pic)

• @DissidentClint

• A lot of folks online are pushing this talking point about 5 Senators ousting Thune. You're getting played. This is not possible. It's being used to make you Kamikaze so that you lose. It's a distraction, to demoralize you. Here's a rundown of why that's a kamikaze idea:

• @Shilohmarx

• Virginia had 1,074,543 duplicate voter registrations. Virginia reported removing zero of these duplicate registrations. (pic)

• @SprinterPress

• In the first days of the war, Iran struck a cloud seeding and climate modification center located in the UAE, after which the situation drastically changed. Regular heavy rains began in Iraq and Iran, and the temperature dropped by about 5°C. The drought in Iran ended, and the rainfall intensified so much that floods occurred, despite the previous water shortage. The facility in the UAE was not only for research purposes, but was also aimed at influencing the climate in the region. As an analogy, the HAARP project and a historical example in Vietnam, where rainfall enhancement technologies were used, are mentioned. (video)

• @themagaking

• It’s no longer an illusion of choice. It’s open defiance of the voters. The Republican Party’s refusal to pass the SAVE Act has made that clear. We are governed by a uniparty. One party pushes the agenda. The other pretends to oppose it. When Republicans gain power, nothing meaningful gets done. That’s by design. Watch the pattern. Democrats rarely break ranks. Republicans “compromise” just enough to keep the agenda moving in the same direction. That’s not opposition. That’s coordination. A system where no matter who you vote for, the outcome slowly bends the same way. So the real question is… What are we going to do about it?

• @redpillb0t

• They’re not coming after our pets in an overt way. Of course not. They’re making vaccinations for our pets mandatory for everything: Boarding Training Travel. THEN, our pets get sick. Young. And since private equity is buying up all the vet hospitals & clinics, the cost of treating your pet is in the thousands. Often for minor procedures. So we deplete our savings; we put it on credit cards, until our options run out, and we no longer have the funds to maintain their health that the vaccines & treatments caused. THAT’S how they’re coming after our pets.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Crude Oil 93.74/bbl. +.84% 
• Gold 4,734.7 USD/t oz. -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.69 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 113.1 -.3%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.32% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.60% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.87%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.43%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by transport and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, AI Infrastructure Build-Out, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 unch.
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.0 +.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .04 +5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.3 +.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.7 +.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 69.6 -.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.1 +2.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.6 -3.2

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.7
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(84 of 500 reporting) +29.0% +.6 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 341.51 +.19:  Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 20.9 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.08% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 819.71 +.76: Growth Rate +106.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.3 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 -5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.1 +1.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.2% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.5% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.55 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 95.8% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.9% 2) Road&Rail -1.9% 3) Computer Services -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BLD, ERAS, CR, NKTR, VELO, HTHT, ASND, BETR, GE, TFIN, GRPN, QXO, UAL, WSBC, PHAT, NHI, EXTR, TH, SMMT, TEL, CALX, TNL, FICO, SON, SRAD, CAR and NN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WEN 2) NN 3) POET 4) SIRI 5) SYF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SRAD 2) SON 3) FICO 4) TEL 5) CAR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLY 3) SMH 4) KRE 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume