Friday, April 30, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,109.74 -.37%
NASDAQ 1,926.11 -1.67%


Leading Sectors
Tobacco +.71%
Energy +.61%
Drugs +.46%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -3.24%
Internet -3.79%
Networking -4.15%

Other
Crude Oil 37.40 +.24%
Natural Gas 5.86 -1.0%
Gold 387.50 +.10%
Base Metals 104.19 +.72%
U.S. Dollar 90.52 -.06%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.50% -.76%
VIX 16.78 +1.39%
Put/Call .68 -28.42%
NYSE Arms 1.55 +17.42%

Market Movers
FDRY -20.2% after missing 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q forecast.
SONO +18.5% after meeting 1Q estimate and raising 04 guidance.
MCK + 9.43% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
IM -26.24% after missing 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q guidance.
BOBJ -23.2% after missing 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q guidance.
SFNT -19.17% after missing 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q guidance.
CELL -18.4% after missing 1Q estimates.
APCC -18.4% after missing 1Q estimates.

Economic Data
Personal Income for March rose .4%, meeting expectations and down from a .5% rise in February.
Personal Spending for March rose .4% versus a .7% expected rise and .4% rise in February.
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence came in at 94.2 versus expectations of 94.0 and 93.2 prior month.
Chicago Purchasing Manager Report for April came in at 63.9 versus expectations of 61.0 and 57.6 prior month.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on ROH, NFX, BIIB, MUR, ASN, SRE, AET, AVP, ACS, GCI, TRB, KRI, XOM, PFGC, MCK, DDR, AMIS, STZ, SNDK, KMI and KMR. GS reiterated Underperform on PHS, FHCC and LVLT. Citi SmithBarney upgraded FON to Buy, target $22. Citi strongly reiterated Buy on BG, target $47. MCK raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower this afternoon on continued weakness in technology shares. Positive earnings surprises for the first quarter are averaging 8% above consensus expectations, leading to almost 300 basis points of upward revisions to 04 estimates. The new 04 earnings growth rate is 16.4% versus 12.7% expectations last month, Bloomberg reported. Russia's RTS Index, the world's second-best performing benchmark in the first quarter, had its sharpest monthly drop in three years amid concern over a slowdown in China and possible bankruptcy at OAO Yukos Oil. The NYSE is applying to delist Gucci(GUC) and suspend its common shares, Dow Jones reported. Donald Trump's Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts, whose auditor in March expressed doubts about its ability to survive, said it may miss a $73.1 million interest payment due Monday, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged today as my longs are falling and shorts are mixed. The weakness in technology shares is spilling over into the entire market. I expect this weakness to continue in the short-run as investor complacency is still too high.

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