Tuesday, April 27, 2004

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,138.15 +.23%
NASDAQ 2,032.53 -.21%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.17%
Homebuilders +2.14%
Energy +1.86%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -1.35%
Networking -1.58%
Nanotechnology -2.59%

Other
Crude Oil 37.54 +.03%
Natural Gas 5.86 -.15%
Gold 399.80 +.18%
Base Metals 107.35 -.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.40 -.24%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.39% -.82%
VIX 15.07 +2.03%
Put/Call .71 +9.23%
NYSE Arms 1.17 +10.38%

After-hours Movers
SNCI +13.59% after beating 1Q estimates.
MSTR +8.91% after beating 1Q estimates, lowering 2Q guidance, maintaining 04 forecast.
GTRC +6.49% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
ACLS +6.32% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
PLT +6.22% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance.
LPNT +4.29% after beating 1Q estimates.
NET -8.84% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q forecast.
NTIQ -7.87% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
ZRAN -7.8% after beating 1Q estimates, lowering 2Q guidance and raising 04 forecast.
QSFT -7.65% after beating 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q forecast.
MNST -6.06% after beating 1Q estimates and leaving 2Q forecast unchanged.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD and BC.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed Tuesday as better-than-expected economic numbers, falling interest rates and violence in the Middle East created above average volatility. After the close, Gillette said it may sign a $71.6 million advertising deal with Real Madrid and England soccer player David Beckham, the London-based Times said. The leaders of an interim government in Iraq, chosen by Iraqis, should be name by the end of May, and should use the time before they assume control of the government June 30 to define their relationship with U.S. military forces, said Brahimi, the United Nations' top envoy to Iraq. China Life Insurance said it received an "informal inquiry" from the SEC, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today and I exited some technology positions in the afternoon, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. Today's breadth was disappointing, as well as the performance of the technology sector. However, the bond market's reaction to better-than-expected economic reports was a positive. If the GDP report Thur. is as strong as I expect(near 6%) and bonds don't fall much or rally, it could provide the catalyst for another upward thrust in stocks. A move substantially lower in bonds on a very strong number would likely signal that the major U.S. indices are still stuck in their recent trading range.

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