Friday, April 16, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,135.13 +.56%
NASDAQ 2,003.02 +.04%


Leading Sectors
Gaming +1.93%
Restaurants +1.85%
I-Banks +1.85%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -1.46%
Broadband -1.87%
Disk Drives -2.49%

Other
Crude Oil 37.36 -.56%
Natural Gas 5.65 -1.38%
Gold 400.50 +.55%
Base Metals 112.93 +1.45%
U.S. Dollar 89.88 -.21%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.36% -.91%
VIX 14.85 -5.72%
Put/Call .78 -7.14%
NYSE Arms 1.59 +67.37%

Market Movers
NOK -8.35% after lowering 2Q estimates and multiple downgrades.
DCLK -25.6% after missing 1Q sales estimates, lowering 2Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
LEXR -30.5% after missing 1Q estimate, lowering 2Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
AVID +10.78% after beating 1Q estimates.
GWW +6.97% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
TASR +9.4% on further short-squeeze and anticipation of quarterly report next week.
NFLX -16.66% after saying it expects more customers to cancel subscriptions this quarter after raising fees.

Economic Data
Housing Starts for March 2007K vs. 1900K estimate.
Building Permits for March 1946K vs. 1910 estimate.
Industrial Production for March -.2% vs. +.3% estimate.
Capacity Utilization for March 76.5% vs. 76.8% estimate.
U. of Mich. Consumer Confidence preliminary April 93.2 vs. 97.0 estimate.

Recommendations
GTK raised to Buy at Merrill, target $68. CPB rated Sell and Bank of America. MOGN raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $74. Citi Smith Barney recommending Sell Brazilian debt. Citi says MOT will meet or exceed estimates. Citi lowered rating on DCLK to Sell. Citi reiterated Buy on UNH, target $74. Citi reiterated Buy on SEBL, $19 target. Citi reiterated Buy on CCI, target $18. Goldman Sachs reiterating Outperform on JCI, UNH, IBM, TRB and FD. TheStreet.com has a positive column on MRCY.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising mid-day as commodity and consumer cyclicals rise on a fall in interest rates. Xerox plans to detail in a report "major progress" toward fabricating electronics from low-cost, flexible plastic, the NY Times reported. Shiite cleric al-Sadr said a compromise with the coalition in Iraq "will not work", Agence France-Presse reported. Copper futures in NY had their biggest gain in two months after a government report showed a surge in U.S. housing starts last month, reviving expectations for increased metal demand, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. economy is showing signs of accelerating without significant risks of inflation, as consumer spending strengthens and companies invest in more workers and equipment, said Alfred Broaddus, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down today as one of my longs is falling significantly and shorts are unchanged. I have not traded as of yet, thus the Portfolio is still market neutral. The broad market is looking much better, with the exception of tech. Tech looks like it is heading lower in the short-run, while the rest of the market will likely remain neutral to slightly higher. I will look to add market exposure in gaming and cyclicals on any weakness from tech selling.

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