Thursday, April 01, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,132.17 +.53%
NASDAQ 2,015.01 +1.04%


Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.45%
Insurance +1.84%
Disk Drives +1.77%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -.75%
Energy -1.22%
Oil Service -2.69%

Other
Crude Oil 34.48 +.61%
Natural Gas 5.82 +.95%
Gold 427.10 -.40%
Base Metals 115.07 +1.47%
U.S. Dollar 87.21 +.09%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.88% +1.14%
VIX 16.65 -.54%
Put/Call .57 -55.81%
NYSE Arms .88 -29.03%

After-hours Movers
MTLG +10.41% after raising 1Q guidance.
XMSR +6.21% after exceeding new subscriber target by 100,000.
SCHN +16.75% after exceeding 2Q forecast and raising 3Q guidance.
SIMG +10.8% after raising 1Q guidance.
MTLM +7.24% on SCHN report.

Recommendations
Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at PIMCO, said investors should buy "anything but Tresasuries." Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy on PG, BSX, AMGN, DNA and AVP. GS reiterated Outperform on PFE and Underperform on SGP and BMY ahead of quarterly reports. Cramer of TheStreet.com, says someone is buying a lot of April 75 calls on FRX, he thinks they will make money. The put/call ratio for the 10-yr. T-note was 3.4 on heavy volume a few days ago, reported TheStreet.com.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mostly higher Thursday on better-than-expected economic reports, falling energy prices and a strong technology sector. The ISM manufacturing report and its employment component, both reached near 20-year highs, leading to speculation that Friday's jobs report will meet or exceed expectations. The Senate Banking Committee approved Senator Richard Shelby's bill to strengthen oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie, the two largest U.S. mortgage finance companies. GM, Ford and Toyota said U.S. sales rose 3.8% in March, as they sold more light trucks and pickups. Sales at Chrysler dropped for the first time in six months as minivan sales declined. Gateway said it will close its 188 retail stores and cut 2,500 jobs. Experts who probed JFK's assassination and the murder of O.J. Simpson's wife combed evidence from the shooting of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian this week, hired by prosecutors to bolster the credibility of the investigation.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio significantly outperformed the market today as my longs were up substantially and shorts fell. I did not trade today, thus leaving market exposure at 75% net long. The recent survey showing bond investors were the most bearish in 7 years and the high put/call ratio on the 10-yr. T-note leads me to believe that interest rates will not rise dramatically on a much better-than expected jobs report. As well, the NASDAQ closing above the psychologically important 2000 level on good breadth today and numerous positive tech comments by CEO's over the last few weeks also factored into my decision to keep market exposure higher, heading into Friday's report, than I had anticipated last month.

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