Tuesday, April 06, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,145.06 -.48%
NASDAQ 2,055.29 -1.15%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.62%
Homebuilders +.93%
Transports +.42%

Lagging Sectors
Broadband -1.99%
Wireless -2.15%
Semis -2.92%

Other
Crude Oil 34.55%
Natural Gas 5.75 -.93%
Gold 419.50 +.77%
Base Metals 112.82 +.08%
U.S. Dollar 88.69 -.59%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.18% -.56%
VIX 15.38 +2.81%
Put/Call .80 +25.0%
NYSE Arms 1.09 +136.96%

Market Movers
NOK -18.6% after announcing 1Q sales shortfall on weakness in handset biz.
TXN -6.56% on NOK's weak handset sales and JP Morgan downgrade to Underweight.
NWS/A +6.2% on announcing plans to move headquarters from Australia to the U.S.
ANDW +15.0% after boosting 2Q guidance substantially.
BARZ +8.4% after announcing acquisition by Morgan Stanley.
CMI +6.42% after boosting 1Q, 2Q and 04 guidance.
BRKT -37.73% after missing 1Q sales estimates.
ZOLL -24.97% after lowering 2Q and 04 guidance.
SFNT -17.76% after lowering 1Q and 04 guidance.
OMCL -27.2% after lowering 1Q guidance.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
SBL rated Outperform at Thomas Weisel, target $18. FON raised to Buy at Merrill. ADVS rated Underweight at JP Morgan, DGIN rated Overweight. TXN cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. CHUX raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James. AMT and SSI rated Overweight at Lehman Brothers. Goldman Sachs says recent survey shows quarter-end acceleration in on-line advertising, increased estimates for YHOO, rated Outperform. GS says 1Q Non-life insurance results should underscore earnings recovery phase of current cycle, favorites are ALL and RE. Goldman said NOK network equipment revenues beat expectations, positive for CLS and SANM. GS rated GE Outperform. GS thinks ITT, TYC, EMR and CSL will raise guidance on quarterly reports. GS reiterated Outperform on FS, NAV, BSX, PH and DNA. Citi Smith Barney reiterated Buy on UPS, $80 target. Citi reiterated Buy on AV, $25 target. Citi reiterated Buy on YHOO, target $60. Citi reiterated Buy on FDRY, $32.50 target. Citi said Air Force issued the Network-Centric Solutions RFP worth $10B over 5 years, will benefit CSCO, AV, NT, JNPR, FDRY, EXTR, FFIV and ETS. Citi raised estimates on MCD, reiterated Buy. Citi initiated JBLU and DAL with Sell ratings, AMR and AAI with Buy ratings.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on a weak technology sector as Nokia's disappointing report pressures the group. JP Morgan says a recent survey by bond investors shows they are the most bearish in 12 years. News Corp.(NWS), parent of the Fox television network, plans to shift its headquarters to the U.S. from Australia. Goldman Sachs expects semi equipment companies to report approximately 25% sequential order growth in the March quarter and to guide for approximately 10% sequential order growth in June quarter. Higher energy prices don't threaten growth in the U.S. economy or add much to inflation concerns, William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview with USA Today. Furthermore, Poole said "There is no regular and reliable relationship between inflation in materials prices or goods at an early stage of processing and retail price inflation." Boeing may choose an engine maker this week for its 7E7 aircraft, a contract worth $40B over 25 years, GE and UTX are U.S. companies in the running.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down today on weakness in technology shares. I have not traded, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long, and will make a decision on whether or not to cut market exposure in the final hour. I think Nokia's(NOK) disappointing guidance is stock-specific and the market is over-reacting to the news. They actually raised guidance in their network equipment division. Traders were looking for a reason to take profits after the recent rally and are using NOK as the excuse. I would be a buyer of semis/equipment on weakness unrelated to Nokia's disappointing handset sales.

No comments: