Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,140.67 -.65%
NASDAQ 2,044.85 -.73%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.92%
Broadcasting +1.21%
Energy +.58%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.27%
Compute Boxmakers -1.32%
Airlines -1.61%

Other
Crude Oil 36.25 +3.55%
Natural Gas 5.91 +1.74%
Gold 424.10 +1.02%
Base Metals 113.22 +.35%
U.S. Dollar 88.23 -.44%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.15% unch.
VIX 16.32 +6.53%
Put/Call .64 -21.95%
NYSE Arms 1.58 +73.63%

Market Movers
STX -7.95% after lowering 3Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
TASR +7.65% after CEO told CNBC that most of the 40 deaths associated with stun gun use were a result of drug overdoses.
AA -4.03% after slight 1Q earnings shortfall and profit-taking.
VISG +21.7% as homeland security stocks continue their surge.
KMG -5.28% after announcing acquisition of WRC for $2.5B and multiple downgrades.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN, DNA, AA, DDR, EQT, DRE, ASN, EMC and UTX. GS says GCI, TRB and KRI are favorite newspaper picks ahead of earnings based on favorable visibility, leverage to ad cycle and good valuations. Goldman reiterated Buy on IBM, target $114. GS says STX miss is company-specific. GS sees another 10% downside for REITs. MNY downgraded to Underperform at GS. GS reiterated Underperform on KMG, JBLU and FRNT. The Pre Legislative Scrutiny Committee released its draft report on the UK gambling bill. Goldman says it is generally negative for casinos and slot makers looking for expansion opportunities in this market. Citi Smith Barney rates OATS a Buy ahead of quarter, $17 target. Citi downgraded STX to 3H, target $7. Citi reiterated 1H on BJ, target $30. Citi reiterated 1H on NMGA, $68 target. Citi reiterated 1M on AA, $48 target. CMI raised to Outperform at CSFB. NYT raised to Buy at Bank of America. ATRX rated Strong Buy at Raymond James. LOW raised to Strong Buy at RJ.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on rising energy prices, violence in Iraq, weaker-than-expected earnings reports from Alcoa/Seagate and profit-taking. New Jersey will give Atlantic City casinos $92M to fund the expansion of hotels and other projects unrelated to gambling, in a deal that also will keep racetracks free of slot machines, the Star-Ledger reported. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist plans to introduce a revised version of legislation aimed at creating a $114B asbestos compensation fund and ending litigation, the Wall Street Journal reported. Intel plans to sell processors and supporting chips that are almost lead-free by the third quarter and is continuing talks with China about a wireless-computing standard, Reuters reported. Returns on junk bonds may lag this month as above-average new supply saps investor demand for existing issues, Bloomberg reported. The European Commission trimmed its economic growth forecast, said risks to the recovery are mounting and warned that six of the 12 countries using the euro will break budget-deficit rules in 04. Wal-Mart lost a ballot initiative in Los Angeles to build a retail complex amid criticism from local officials that the development would hurt small businesses. Crude oil futures soared after the Energy Dept. reported that inventories unexpectedly fell from a 19-week high last week, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as one of my tech positions is up substantially and shorts fall. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 50% net long. Stocks are holding up relatively well considering the overnight news. Investors anticipating strong reports from GE and YHOO are likely providing a floor under equities. I may selectively add exposure into any extreme weakness in the afternoon.

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