Monday, July 11, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart said July sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as food sales outpaced general merchandise sales for the first time in five weeks.
- White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove didn't mention Valerie Plame by name as a CIA covert operative when he spoke to a Time Magazine reporter, according to a story to be published in the July 18 issue of Newsweek.
- North Korea agreed to resume talks aimed at halting its nuclear arms program, ending more than a yearlong impasse with the US and four other nations. "It is the ultimate goal of North Korea to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula," the official Korean Central News Agency reported.
- US retailers, including Wal-Mart, Gap and Chico's FAS, are increasing purchases of inexpensive clothing and jewelry from India as they brace for rising costs when China, their biggest overseas supplier, revalues its currency.
- European stock indices may fall on speculation that the region's faltering economic growth is taking a greater toll on corporate profits than analysts anticipated.
- Crude oil is falling for a third day after Hurricane Dennis struck the western Florida coast, missing oil rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Wall Street Journal:
- VNU NV, owner of market researcher ACNielsen, is close to a deal to buy data provider IMS Health for $6.3 billion in cash and stock.

Barron's:
- Biotechnology companies such as Genentech are relocating or expanding in San Francisco, pushing commercial real estate prices higher and vacancies lower.
- Three veteran bulls of the Treasury bond market are having the last laugh over the majority of investment strategists who forecast falling prices and rising yields, and they say long-term yields will hold or fall further.

New York Times:
- The bombs detonated in London were crude devices, suggesting the attack was carried out by a sleeper cell of homegrown extremists rather than highly trained terrorists from overseas, citing investigators it didn't identify.
- The US economy has been helped by the increasing demand for new homes that has helped add 700,000 jobs during the past four years as home prices gained in many areas, citing Economy.com.
- The new imam of London's Finsbury Park mosque called on Muslims at Friday prayers yesterday to show their outrage by helping find those responsible for this week's terrorist bombings.
- The Bush administration yesterday named a commission to seek ways to reduce the costs of the US Medicaid program by $10 billion during the next five years and tapped a former Tennessee governor to head it.
- The number of American farms on which the death tax is owed when the owners die has declined 82% to just 300 farms since Congress more than doubled the threshold at which the tax applies.
- Fund managers with a so-called value style who normally avoid technology stocks with high prices relative to earnings are finding more of these stocks reasonable buys after a five-year decline.

AP:
- Twenty- nine cows test negative for mad now disease after they were taken from the same herd where an infected cow was found, citing the US Dept. of Agriculture.

Time magazine:
- Robert Iger, Walt Disney's soon-to-be chief executive officer, said the media company's goal is to build a theme park in mainland China and use that to sell its programming and movies.

Guardian:
- UK business confidence is at its lowest level since December 2001, citing a Lloyds TSB Group Plc survey.

The Observer:
- Citigroup is considering a possible $1.7 billion bid for Egg Plc, the internet bank majority owned by Prudential Plc.

AFP:
- Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for attacks on London transport this week, posting an Internet statement today in the name of the Europe division of the network's Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China's crude oil imports in the first-half of the year gained 3.9% to 63.4 million metric tons, citing customs statistics. The country's oil product imports fell 21% to 15.7 million tons from January through June.
- Imports of steel to China fell 32% in the first five months of the year.

China Securities Journal:
- China will allow qualified foreign institutional investors to buy up to $10 billion of Chinese stock, up from $4 billion now, as part of efforts to bolster markets and speed up the nation's share-structure reform.

Economic Daily News:
- Taiwan's flat-panel display makers used up almost their entire inventories in the second quarter and now face supply shortages of upstream parts and components.

Maeil Business Newspaper:
- LG Electronics may consider bidding for Hynix Semiconductor to expand in electronics and telecom equipment.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on FWRD and mixed on NAT, DIS, COST, NXY, BA, BCS.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on CB, DOW and mixed on NOC, SBL, INTC, GGB.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on TGT, AXP, HAL and mixed on LMT.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on FLIR, LLL, BA and mixed on SBL.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on NSC and SFA.

Goldman Sachs:
None of note

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
DNA/.26
BEN/.95
JBHT/.34

Upcoming Splits
JAH 3-for-2

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher on optimism over comments from North Korea, no more terrorist acts and lower energy prices. I expect US stocks to open higher on gains in Asia. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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