Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day on "Goldilocks" Beige Book Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,237.07 +.40%
DJIA 10,630.16 +.47%
NASDAQ 2,183.91 +.36%
Russell 2000 672.91 -.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,322.11 +.30%
S&P Barra Growth 593.46 +.46%
S&P Barra Value 638.16 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.56 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 760.47 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Technology 503.50 +.90%
Transports 3,755.86 +.39%
Utilities 393.51 +.34%
Put/Call .79 -5.95%
NYSE Arms .84 -17.95%
Volatility(VIX) 10.52 -4.28%
ISE Sentiment 188.00 +3.87%
US Dollar 89.73 -.30%
CRB 307.28 +.38%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.40 +.34%
Unleaded Gasoline 172.00 +1.37%
Natural Gas 7.65 +3.03%
Heating Oil 161.70 +.83%
Gold 430.90 +.37%
Base Metals 125.49 +1.07%
Copper 162.45 +1.15%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.26% +.84%

Leading Sectors
Wireless +1.35%
Telecom +1.35%
Drugs +1.33%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.16%
Steel -1.50%
Disk Drives -1.62%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Semiconductor, Medical, Retail longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I added to a few existing longs and added MDRX long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using a stop-loss of $16 on this position. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are higher and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is positive considering the rise in long-term rates. It appears as though investors liked the Fed’s Beige Book report that portrayed a “Goldilocks” style US economy. I expect stocks to trade higher into the afternoon on short-covering.

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