Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Stocks Quietly Higher Mid-day, Led by Tech

Indices
S&P 500 1,233.07 +.33%
DJIA 10,608.50 +.11%
NASDAQ 2,178.10 +.53%
Russell 2000 675.29 +.64%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,300.32 +.34%
S&P Barra Growth 591.82 +.36%
S&P Barra Value 636.54 +.26%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.79 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 757.22 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Technology 499.30 +.61%
Transports 3,745.22 +.35%
Utilities 393.32 +.33%
Put/Call .85 +7.59%
NYSE Arms .88 -26.33%
Volatility(VIX) 11.02 -.63%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -8.28%
US Dollar 89.98 +.46%
CRB 306.42 +.37%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.65 +1.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 169.80 -.49%
Natural Gas 7.43 +2.0%
Heating Oil 163.00 +1.46%
Gold 423.50 -.56%
Base Metals 124.16 -.61%
Copper 160.60 -.74%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.23% -.23%

Leading Sectors
Steel +2.74%
Networking +2.37%
Airlines +2.02%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.30%
Computer Hardware -1.30%
Oil Tankers -2.13%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Semiconductor, Networking and Retail longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I added to my GILD long and OSG short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is positive considering the rise in energy prices and disappointing consumer confidence reading. The Johnson Redbook Same-store-sales Index rose 4.3% year-over-year last week vs. a 4.2% rise the prior week. The last time weekly sales exceeded 4.0% for four consecutive weeks was June 2004. This week's gain is also up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 12th week in a row the index has exceeded 3%. I expect stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the afternoon on short-covering.

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