Friday, July 22, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Rates Fall and Energy Rises

Indices
S&P 500 1,228.83 +.15%
DJIA 10,605.24 -.20%
NASDAQ 2,171.82 -.31%
Russell 2000 670.97 +.58%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,272.84 +.32%
S&P Barra Growth 590.70 +.16%
S&P Barra Value 635.48 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.18 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 755.97 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.61 -.18%
Transports 3,765.62 -.37%
Utilities 391.75 +.81%
Put/Call .79 -14.13%
NYSE Arms 1.08 -23.36%
Volatility(VIX) 10.94 -.27%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -25.48%
US Dollar 89.55 +.70%
CRB 303.93 +1.05%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.15 +1.79%
Unleaded Gasoline 170.00 +1.13%
Natural Gas 7.37 +.96%
Heating Oil 158.30 +.90%
Gold 425.00 unch.
Base Metals 124.73 +.21%
Copper 160.50 +.09%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -1.25%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +4.88%
Energy +3.16%
Steel +2.25%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.92%
Biotech -2.22%
Airlines -2.34%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet, Biotech and Networking longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in energy prices and decline in long-term rates. The U.K. economy, Europe's second-largest, grew 1.7% in the second quarter. I expect the Bank of England to cut rates next month or sooner. The ECB won't be too far behind. This should spur further gains in the U.S. dollar. Industrial production in England fell .4% in the second quarter after a .9% decline the previous quarter. Oil prices have a high correlation with global industrial production. I expect stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close as falling long-term rates more than offsets higher energy prices.

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