Thursday, July 14, 2005

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is falling a second day in NY after a US government report showed stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, rose more than analysts predicted.
- People who work at the top 50 hedge funds ranked by assets have directed 62% of donations to Democrats since January 2003, a Bloomberg News review of campaign-finance disclosures shows.

Financial Times:
- European financial and commodities markets will today stop to observe a two minutes silence at noon London time in memory of the victims of the July 7 bombing in the UK capital.
- Cnooc's board agreed yesterday to allow its executives to raise the company's $18.5 billion takeover offer for Unocal.

China Daily:
- Philip Morris International, a member of Altria Group, is in talks with manufacturers in China about the possibility of making Marlboro cigarettes in the world's largest nation of smokers.
- China's military is shifting from large fighting divisions to smaller brigades than can be deployed swiftly to upgrade its battle readiness.

Shanghai Daily:
- Wal-Mart Stores plans to open its first store in Shanghai on July 28, its 48th location on China's mainland.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on BC, NSM and DNA.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.19%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CBH/.46
FCS/.05
FITB/.74
GENZ/.53
IFIN/.59
MAR/.77
MTG/1.52
PII/.68
LUV/.18
TRB/.58
UNH/.60

Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for June is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% decline in May.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for June is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in May.
- Advance Retail Sale for June are estimated to rise 1.0% versus a .5% decline in May.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for June are estimated to rise .6% versus a .2% decline in May.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 322K versus 319K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2600K versus 2581K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, led by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and build on gains later in the day. I expect the CPI to rise slightly below estimates tomorrow and retail sales to slightly exceed expectations. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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