Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Stocks Strong Mid-day, Boosted by Earnings Optimism in Tech

Indices
S&P 500 1,226.34 +.44%
DJIA 10,629.68 +.52%
NASDAQ 2,168.02 +1.09%
Russell 2000 666.99 +1.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,235.16 +.57%
S&P Barra Growth 588.52 +.64%
S&P Barra Value 634.02 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.54 +.15%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 752.18 +1.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 504.36 +1.43%
Transports 3,637.05 +.12%
Utilities 393.49 +.37%
Put/Call .78 -24.27%
NYSE Arms 1.04 -21.60%
Volatility(VIX) 10.50 -2.51%
ISE Sentiment 193.00 +18.40%
US Dollar 89.89 +.28%
CRB 303.74 -1.04%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.05 -.47%
Unleaded Gasoline 165.10 +.22%
Natural Gas 7.54 -1.46%
Heating Oil 163.10 -.04%
Gold 420.40 -.14%
Base Metals 122.83 -.28%
Copper 158.65 +1.28%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.19% -.74%

Leading Sectors
Papers +4.62%
Steel +3.49%
Oil Service +2.08%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.37%
Oil Tankers -.74%
HMOs -1.61%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Semiconductor, Networking and Homebuilding longs. I exited my SPY short this morning and added AAPL long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using a $40 stop-loss on this new position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is positive considering the market’s overbought state and the outperformance by Tech stocks. The Johnson Redbook Same-store-sales Index rose 4.2% year-over-year last week vs. a 4.2% rise the prior week. This is the first time weekly sales have exceeded 4.0% for three consecutive weeks since June 2004. This week’s gain is also up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the eleventh week in a row the index has exceeded 3%. I expect stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the afternoon on short-covering and a decline in long-term rates.

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