Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, Less US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.3 -1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.49 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.12 -.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.24 +.66%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -15.6%
  • Total Put/Call .98 -8.4%
  • NYSE Arms .98 -24.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.80 -2.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 685.0 +1.09%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.77 -2.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 289.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.79 -1.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.42 -.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.56 +1.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 39.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.81 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 11.0 -2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.60 +3.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 -4.0 basis points
  • 75.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 83.5% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +247 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +80 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +58 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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