Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stocks Reversing Substantially Lower into Final Hour on More Hawkish Than Expected Fed Commentary, Global Growth Fears, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.6 -3.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.72 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.70 +.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.65 -3.99%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +56.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 -.91%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +15.15%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.05 +4.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 721.0 +2.47%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.55 -2.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.25 -13.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.45 +20.89%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 200.19 +.49%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.94 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.50 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.5 +3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -7.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.90 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.38% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 13.25 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.89 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -75.0 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 -2.0 basis points
  • 20.3% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 24.3% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -367 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -125 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -132 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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