Thursday, December 13, 2018

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Earnings Jitters, Technical Selling, Retail/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.2 -1.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.23 +.28%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.11 -.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.86 -.95%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +3.33%
  • Total Put/Call 1.22 +28.4%
  • NYSE Arms .97 +21.25%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.85 -1.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 669.0 -3.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.12 -2.55%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 267.25 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.55 -2.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.04 -2.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.60 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.50 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.5 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 +5.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.99 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.0 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.83 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.60 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .7 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 unch.
  • 75.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 84.3% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -131 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -32 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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