Monday, December 03, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -8.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.05 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.15 -.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.23 -4.65%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -34.4%
  • Total Put/Call .75 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .77 -10.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.59 -1.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 667.0 -.98%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.39 -3.14%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 284.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.31 -4.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 200.65 -2.99%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.75 -.45%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.5 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.75 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.46 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.33% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 15.75 -4.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.18 USD/Metric Tonne +.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.8 +25 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.60 +5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97-2.0 basis point
  • 82.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 91.8% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/tech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

No comments: