Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.3 -2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.72 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.10 -.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.71 +1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -6.12%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +13.8%
  • NYSE Arms .51 -54.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.81 -3.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 686.0 -.38%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.75 -5.53%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 272.25 -16.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.55 -2.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.82 -2.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.63 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 37.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.08 +.44%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 13.75 +2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.0 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .7 +6.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 +1.0 basis point
  • 74.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 83.3% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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