Friday, January 11, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Profit-Taking, Oil Decline, Energy/Utility Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.55 -4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.30 -.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.56 +.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.39 -1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +42.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .79 -34.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.77 +.18%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 713.0 +2.68%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.59 -2.45%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 261.5 -1.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.37 -1.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.69 +2.01%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.52 +.37%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.94 -.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.75 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.29 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.10 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -88.6 -1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.3 -6.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 +1.0 basis points
  • .5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 10.8% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -69 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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