Monday, January 07, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.23 -.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.55 +.78%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.52 -.63%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.22 -2.22%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -13.4%
  • Total Put/Call .91 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .91 +139.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.86 -3.91%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 786.0 -4.09%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 111.47 -1.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 267.75 -1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.0 -2.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.98 -3.6%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.49 +.50%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 40.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.88 +.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 16.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.83 USD/Metric Tonne -.30%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.1 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.5 +4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.80 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 2.0% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +207 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +57 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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