Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on China Stimulus Optimism, More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Oil Gain, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.25 -4.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.50 -.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.38 -.42%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.02 -2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 +6.85%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +52.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 -2.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 739.0 +.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.23 -2.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 266.75 +5.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.25 -.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 193.14 -.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.38 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.83 -.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 18.0 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 71.42 USD/Metric Tonne +.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.80 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -85.7 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.7 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80-2.0 basis point
  • 2.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 8.7% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -55 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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