Friday, January 18, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Road & Rail/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.66 +.28%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.21 -1.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.63 +.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 59.0 -37.2%
  • Total Put/Call .80 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .54 -40.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.93 -1.68%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 720.0 -1.23%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.51 -2.73%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 246.75 -5.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.55 -2.26%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.94 -3.18%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 154.19 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.50-.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.99 -.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 17.25 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 73.91 USD/Metric Tonne +.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.90 -3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -81.7 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.8 +1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 unch.
  • 1.5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 7.6% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +264 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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