Monday, January 14, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Gaming/Utility Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.9 +4.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.94 -.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.49 -.63%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.51 -1.78%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -35.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -1.87%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -28.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.30 +1.10%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 735.0 +3.61%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.63 +.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 261.25 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 +.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.0 -.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.32 -.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.95 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.
  • Yield Curve 17.25 +1.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 70.72 USD/Metric Tonne -1.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.50 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -86.7 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.7 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 unch.
  • .5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 8.7% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -179 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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