Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Virus Concerns, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Transport/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.76 +5.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.40 -.37%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.05 +1.85%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.0 +3.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 57.0 -42
  • Total Put/Call .83 +25.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +.88%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.84 +1.94%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 563.0 +1.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.43 +1.59%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 51.69 +2.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 184.30 +3.21%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.37 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.35 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.13 -.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .25 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.11 USD/Metric Tonne -.27%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.10 +5.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.2 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 -1.0 basis point
  • 1.6% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 10.3% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -80 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -115 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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