Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• IMF Trims Global Economic Outlook, But Tones Down Risk Warnings.  

• Moody’s Downgrades Hong Kong Rating Amid Political Turmoil.  

• Free Markets Made Davos. Now Governments Are Crashing the Party.    

• Investors Haven’t Been This Bullish on China’s Stocks for Years.

• Global Shipping Gauges Bottom Out Steaming Toward Calmer Waters.

• China Will Rack Up Three Billion Trips During World’s Biggest Human Migration. 

• Stocks Edge Lower With U.S. Futures; Oil Climbs. European stocks and U.S. equity futures edged lower on Monday as investors awaited a fresh batch of corporate earnings and some key central bank meetings this week. Crude oil rose following supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Activity was muted across most major markets because of a U.S. holiday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index trimmed an earlier decline, though it remained modestly lower after spending the morning in the red. Contracts on the main American equity benchmarks also pared some earlier losses. Equities advanced in most of Asia, though shares slumped in Hong Kong and India. European bonds were mixed and range-bound, while the pound was slightly weaker ahead of U.K. jobs data due tomorrow. Brent crude jumped back above $65 a barrel as unrest hit key production regions. Iraq temporarily stopped output at an oil field on Sunday, while Libyan production almost ground to a halt after armed forces shut down a pipeline. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dipped 0.1% as of 1:45 p.m. London time. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. The MSCI Emerging Market Index decreased 0.1%.  

• Oil Advances to One-Week High as Unrest Hits Iraq and Libya.  

• JPMorgan Says Analysts Are ‘Unusually’ Pessimistic on Earnings.

• Somebody Big Has Called This Year’s Oil Market Completely Wrong.  

• Hedge-Fund Titans Hohn, Mandel Lead $178 Billion Year of Profits.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump to Speak at Davos as His Impeachment Trial Unfolds at Home.

• The Left Forgets What Martin Luther King Stood For.

• Trump’s GOP Support Remains Solid Through Impeachment.

• Lev Parnas Paid His Way Into Donald Trump’s Orbit.

• Hospitals Give Tech Giants Access to Detailed Medical Records.

• Europe’s Cheap Debt Draws Record Borrowing by U.S. Companies.

• Foreign Investment Falls to Near-Decade Low as Globalization Slows.

• The State of Trump’s Union.

Fox News:

• Island’s governor fires two more as scandal around warehoused hurricane, earthquake aid widens.

• CURTIS HILL: Why Rev. King’s speech still inspires us to be better.

• Trump touts low African-American jobless rate in MLK Day tweet.

CNBC:

• IMF says the outlook for the global economy ‘remains sluggish’ as it cuts growth forecasts.

• Boeing(BA) is in talks to borrow $10 billion or more as 737 Max crisis wears on.

• TikTok was just pulled into the middle of a years-long fight between Snap and Facebook.

Zero Hedge: 

• Futures Flat With US Closed For Holiday; Nat Gas Craters.

• Fake Investigations... Designed To Fool You.

• One Bank Is Selling Its Super-Rich Clients Products To Predict The 2020 Election.

• IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast For 6th Consecutive Time, Warns "Climate Change" Will Hit Economy.

• Platts: 7 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week.

• White House Legal Team Slams "Frivolous", "Dangerous" Impeachment Charade; Seeks "Speedy Acquittal".

• Trump Jr.: "Democrats And Media Hate Trump Much More Than They Love America".

• Dollar Dips As Trump-Macron Agree On Tariff "Truce" Through Year-End.

• The Ugly Truth About How Much Americans Have Been Spied On By The Gov't Since 2001.

• Hedge Fund CIO: Once All Investing Becomes Passive, Then The Information Contained In Market Prices Will Be Meaningless.

• India's Half-Finished "Ghost Towns" Leave Middle Class In Crisis.

• Peter Schiff: "I Just Lost All The Bitcoin I Have Ever Owned".

• NYT Editors Hedge Their Bets, Endorse Warren & Klobuchar.

• The EU Is The Biggest Loser From US-China Agreement.

Business Insider:

• China is fighting to stop the spread of a mysterious, deadly virus as millions prepare to travel for Chinese New Year.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.5 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.30 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.35%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CMA)/1.75

• (HAL)/.29

• (PETS)/.30

After the Close:

• (COF)/2.37

• (IBM)/4.69

• (NFLX)/.52

• (AMTD)/.77

• (UAL)/2.64

• (ZION)/1.10

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The President's speech to World Economic Forum and the Eurozone ZEW Index could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.