Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Economic Data, China Tariff Worries, Profit-Taking, Energy/REIT Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.4 +.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.02 -.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.35 -.78%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.6 -8.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +8
  • Total Put/Call .76 -1.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 -2.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.7 +1.05%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 548.0 +2.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.09 +.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.75 +3.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.77 -1.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.95 +.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.82 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 5.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.53 -.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .27 +1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.17 USD/Metric Tonne -.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -7.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.50 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.60 +2.6 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 -1.0 basis point
  • .7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 10.5% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -95 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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