Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast Tensions, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, REIT/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.57 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 667 -.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.5 -2.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +20
  • Total Put/Call .68 -17.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 +3.06%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.23 +.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 503.0 -2.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.18 -.76%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.25 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.75 -2.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 182.95 +1.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.19 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 35.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.38 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.52% unch.
  • Yield Curve .28 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.63%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +2.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.60 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.4 +1.2 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -2.0 basis points
  • 6.6% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 17.4% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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