Thursday, January 16, 2020

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.27 +.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.18 -2.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.7 +1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -1
  • Total Put/Call .64 -14.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -14.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.1 -1.27%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 548.0 +1.74%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.09 +1.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.5 +5.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.13 -1.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.68 -1.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.95 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.5 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -1.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.38 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .23 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.18 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.6 +10.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.10 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +.3 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 unch.
  • .7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 8.4% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +126 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

No comments: