Thursday, August 13, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Coronavirus Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.78 -2.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.02 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.17 -.62%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.5 -3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99 .0 +1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .60 -21.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 -24.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.93 +.83%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 754.85 -.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.82 +3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.25 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.05 -1.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 186.78 +1.70%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.87 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  83.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.5 +.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.44 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 50.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.74 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 250.3 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 206.50 -2.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -24 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -56 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer staple/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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