Monday, November 21, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                             
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.25 + basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 84.25 +4.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 +.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.7 unch. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.70 unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.9 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ANF)/-.12
  • (AEO)/.22
  • (AMWD)/1.92
  • (ADI)/2.59
  • (BIDU)/15.66
  • (BBY)/1.02
  • (BURL)/.52
  • (CSIQ)/.38
  • (DKS)/2.26
  • (DLTR)/1.18
  • (JACK)/1.36
  • (MDT)/1.28
  • (VIPS)/1.76
  • (WMG)/.12
After the Close:
  • (ADSK)/1.70
  • (GES)/.55
  • (HPQ)/.84
  • (JWN)/.15
  • (VMW)/1.60
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to -8 versus -10 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, Australia PMI report and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on Cryptocurrency Contagion Fears, China Hard-Landing Worries, Dollar Strength, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.7 -1.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .91%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.7 -.23%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.2 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -3.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 -6.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.37 +47.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.8 -.36%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.26 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 403.0 -18.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.99 +.33% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 356.73 -1.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 156.35 +3.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 253.57 -.63%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.58 -.54%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 43.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -51.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 130.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.15 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.15% -8.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -72.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 113.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.8 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -3.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.90 -.07:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch., P/E 17.2 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.71 +2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.18% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.60% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.0%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 44.7%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.7%(-1.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  50% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -11.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 39.5% of Issues Advancing, 56.8% Declining
  • 41 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
  • 40.7%(-4.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.0 -1.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,525.0 -.39%
  • Vix 23.3 +.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -4.5%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.78 +91.4% 

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:              
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:

 MROnline:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Blaze:
  • Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX had ties to Ukrainian government, WEF, and top Biden adviser. Curiously, the Ukrainian government launched a cryptocurrency donation website in March that was backed by FTX. CoinDesk reported in March, "'Aid for Ukraine,' which has the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake, and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine, Everstake’s Head of Growth Vlad Likhuta told CoinDesk. Ukraine’s crypto-savvy Ministry of Digital Transformation is also involved."
Axios:
  • Bankman-Fried spent millions on Dem campaigns. It's unclear where Bankman-Fried's money came from. Forensic accountants and bankruptcy courts are on the case, but it could take months to untangle FTX's web of comingled funds. Bankman-Fried spent around $37 million during the last election cycle, almost all of which went to boosting Democratic candidates and causes. That made him the party's second-largest donor, according to OpenSecrets, and the sixth largest overall.
NY Post: 
  • FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to appear alongside Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky at exclusive NYT event. Disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is scheduled to speak at an exclusive conference hosted by the New York Times alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The DealBook Summit, sponsored by Accenture, will be held at Jazz at Lincoln Center in Manhattan on Nov. 30 and features speeches from supposed luminaries such as Mark Zuckerberg, Mayor Eric Adams, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Vice President Mike Pence.
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.25 +6.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 80.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.1 USD/Metric Tonne -3.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.6 -.2%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73 -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 +1.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.36%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (SJM)/2.19
  • (J)/1.77
After the Close:
  • (A)/1.39
  • (DELL)/1.61
  • (URBN)/.42
  • (ZM)/.84
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 0.0 from .1 in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German PPI report, 2/5Y T-Note auctions, TD Securities Tech Conference and the Needham Consumer Tech/E-Commerce Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.