Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.2% 2) Airlines +3.1% 3) Energy +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IGMS, SRRK, AAL, BTAI, CNK, CTSH, CLF, CALX, UAL, CLFD, UMH, ARHS, BOWL and DAL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MAR 2) ICLN 3) MPLX 4) FIS 5) CVNA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) YTEN 2) ZRFY 3) ADCT 4) AAL 5) FSI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 69.2% of Issues Advancing, 27.4% Declining
• 61 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 55.0%(+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.3 -.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,052.8 -.2%
  
• Vix 19.2 -8.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +5.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -25.4%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.75 -3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 54.5 -4.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.48%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.2 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  56.7 +.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.4 +.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.44%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (TSM)/11.12
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
• The CPI YoY for Dec. is estimated to rise +6.5% versus a +7.1% gain in Nov.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 204K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1709K versus 1694K prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Dec. is estimated at -$60.0B versus -$21.3B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Import/Export Conference, 30Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the Evercore Utility Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Better-Than-Expected CPI Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.0 +1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .58%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 -2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.56 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.9 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +19.0
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -17.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.4 +84.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.1 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 363.25 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 352.0 +20.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.61 -2.7% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 412.02 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.0 basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.2 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.58 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.95 +.71%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 12.0 basis points -10.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  132.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 115.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .80 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.2 +.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.67% +5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.31%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 65.0 euros/megawatt-hour -7.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.8 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 79.5 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.9 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.30 -.14:  Growth Rate +11.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 +8.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -68.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 66.2%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 47.1%(-1.8 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.2%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +24 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +118 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -.9% 2) Computer Hardware -.6% 3) Shipping -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ELF, DELL, WHD, MTSI, DADA, IMVT, ISRG, CVAC, FRO, CUTR, GMAB, TFX, GDS, CLFD, INMD, HALO, GOOD, CVLT and CALX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BSX 2) RITM 3) VRAY 4) MGM 5) USB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HALO 2) ICHR 3) IREN 4) ISRG 5) LEVI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.3% 2) REITs +2.9% 3) Homebuilding +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VSCO, AXNX, TGTX, EXAS, GEHC, BROS, GME, ORMP, OSH, CECO and RIVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRTY 2) MAT 3) FRPT 4) BBBY 5) Z

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AMC 2) LASE 3) NOTV 4) CVNA 5) GATO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume