Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NSSC)/.39
• (PDD)/18.45 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communications Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Canada’s tentative trade deal with the US appears to include a win-win — reviving the Keystone XL pipeline. Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says its inclusion is a “no brainer.” 
• A dronemaker backed by Trump’s sons struck a $22.3 million deal to sell counter-drone detection equipment to an energy company in the Persian Gulf, capitalizing on private firms’ push to protect themselves amid fallout from the Iran war. 
• The US slapped more sanctions on Cuba, hitting the construction ministry, state mining, tourism and trading companies, and officials that run the communist government’s global outreach efforts. 
• Samsung plans to announce Friday a new shareholder return package that could be worth as much as $79 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. 
• The trajectory for US public finances continues to head in the wrong direction.
• Tech firms are trying to quell growing opposition to their AI plans.
• A key regional price benchmark for aluminum delivered to the US market tumbled after the Trump administration indicated it would lower tariffs on certain Canadian exports of aluminum.
• Abbott agreed to pay $670 million to settle some lawsuits alleging that it hid the risk that its infant formula for premature babies can cause a deadly bowel disease.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.     
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Poll Shows Voters Reject US-Israel Military Integration.      
• According to the BofA Fund Managers Survey, Taiwan and Japan are seen as the two biggest beneficiaries of the next phase of the AI cycle. China is tied with the US at 18%. Korea is last.    
• Coking Coal Prices Surge 25%, Squeezing India's Steelmakers. 
• ADNOC Issues Ninth Spot Crude Tender Since June As UAE Boosts Oil Exports.
• The Dem 'Big Tent Party' Is Doomed.
• "Get Long And Buckle Up": Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg. 
• US Government Warns: Hackers Attacking Vulnerable Water Systems With AI Help.
• NATO F-16s Blow Up Sea Drone That Threatened Romania's Largest Deep Gas Platform.
• "No Thanks!" Has A Price: Trump Guts Korea War Games, Courts Kim As The Seoul Alliance Buckles.
• Fake News 'Journalists' Love The Deep State.
• *US MONEY-MARKET FUND ASSETS RISE TO $7.93 TRILLION AT ICI. 
• Food Supply Alert: Ukraine Grain Exports Collapse As Black Sea Attacks Choke Global Shipments. 
• Stocks Tumble, Yields & Oil Jump, Gold & Bitcoin Surge After Bessent Intervention Fails.     

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Watching Iran's economy; a losing game for bonds. 
• Japan’s headline inflation rate hit its highest level this year, coming in at 1.9% for July as prices continued to climb due to energy prices. Core inflation — which strips out prices of fresh food but includes energy — was in line with expectations, coming in at 1.8%.   
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• While young workers are struggling in the broader job market, they’re thriving in a subset of AI jobs.
• Stock futures are little changed after a steep sell-off sparked by a move back higher in Treasury yields: Live updates.
• With less than three months until the midterm elections, opposition to AI data centers is becoming a bipartisan rallying cry in a growing number of states.
• The Trump administration’s plan to crush Iran’s economy will likely negate the need for major U.S. military operations against the Islamic republic, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday. “If we are doing the maximum economic pressure, then that means that likely there will not be a large-scale kinetic restart,” Bessent said in an exclusive interview with “Squawk on the Street.”
• How higher bond yields can prove a stumbling block for the stock market.

• @WallStEngine

• OpenAI is starting to close the gap with Anthropic among Ramp’s 70,000+ U.S. business customers. Anthropic: ~44% share. OpenAI: ~40%. Nearly 56% of Ramp businesses now pay for AI, up from just over 50% in March.
• More details on $AVGO's reported AI financing: The full package could reach nearly $100 billion, including $60B-$70B of senior secured debt plus roughly $30B of junior debt. Apollo and Blackstone are in talks to participate, with the debt potentially issued through a special-purpose vehicle. The financing would help Anthropic and other AI companies secure Broadcom chips and infrastructure, and could be rolled out in stages rather than all at once. 
• ROSS STORES $ROST Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $6.3B (Est. $6.15B) ; +13% YoY. EPS: $2.66; includes $0.60 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Comparable Store Sales: +10% YoY. Net Income: $851M; +68% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: EPS: $8.61-$8.77 (Est. $7.78). New Store Opening Plan: 115 locations. 
• NVIDIA $NVDA says it currently has no LPU sales in China and that The Information’s report on LPU sales is incorrect. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Crude Oil 86.76/bbl. -.1% 
• Gold 4,587.0 USD/t oz. +.34%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.41 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.44 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.4 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.70% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.06% +3.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.7 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Increasing War-Induced Inflation Expectations, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Retail/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 +.9%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.7 -.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.37 +1.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 140.5 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 +2.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.9 -.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +5.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 78.0 -.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.2 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(466 of 500 reporting) +49.6% -.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 390.57 +.40:  Growth Rate +32.6% unch., P/E 19.7 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 950.01 +.96: Growth Rate +83.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 51.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.46 -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 65.45 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% -1.0 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.69% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 +13.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.4% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.9%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -720 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -7 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Defense -3.7% 2) Space -3.4% 3) Alt Energy -3.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RS, IPX, TSAT, VIK, STLD, MT, FRVO, CPRI, ONON, BLZE, BBNX, ENVA, BMA, VAC, BBW, NTES, GPCR, KLAR, ARQT, VICR, DKS, UPST, PRG, KC, MRCY, MAIR, AERO, ATAT, UTI, EQPT, SEI, EIKN, WMT, EROC, ONT, WOLF, LYTS, MRNA, AAP and AADX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ROST 2) AAP 3) MRNA 4) WMT 5) GTM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AAP 2) EQPT 3) CAPR 4) AARD 5) COTY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) XLI 5) XNTK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Agriculture +1.7% 3) Digital Health +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SCSC, MARA, SCTX, ANDG, TEM, CAI, ASST, BTDR, ALM, NDSN, COIN, DE, LB, AUPH, DQ, DRD, CRCL, LIF, AU, MFP, BMNR, RIOT, AGRO, CLSK, SMJF, PSNL, ARCT, KGC, CNH, AMLX, HIMS, ILMN, MOS, ETOR, VIST, VIRT, PCG, HSAI, EE and AGCO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PTEN 2) QXO 3) NYT 4) PURR 5) CSGP 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DE 2) NDSN 3) MARA 4) SCSC 5) TEM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) XME 4) XLP 5) IGV

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume