Friday, April 29, 2005

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro traded near the lowest in 10 days against the dollar and was headed for its biggest weekly loss in five on concern Europe's economy is faltering.
- Oil prices may fall further next week on speculation US refiners have enough supplies to meet demand after inventories rose to the highest in almost three years, a Bloomberg survey shows.

NY Times:
- Neiman Marcus Group is set to receive bids today from three private-equity investor groups, who are expected to offer $95 to $105 a share to buy the luxury retailer.

Financial Times:
- China police have text-messaged warnings to more than 30 million mobile-phone users as part of a campaign to avert any more anti-Japan protests during the weeklong Labor Day holiday that begins May 1.

London-based Times:
- GlaxoSmithKline Plc said a US court has granted a ruling which may help its defense in a dispute with the IRA that could cost the company $7.8 billion.

Standard:
- China has told local governments to implement rules allowing overseas companies to set up their own distribution systems.

China Securities Journal:
- China has established the basic conditions to adopt a more flexible exchange rate and may allow the yuan's value to fluctuate by "several percentage points" at any time.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on K, GNW, IDIX and KLAC.
- Reiterated Underperform on CTL, MRO and PFG.
- Reiterated Attractive view of Hospital sector.

Business Week:
- Starbucks shares may rise as much as 24% by the end of the year because of growth in earnings.
- Sun Microsystems may be taken private by buyout firm Silver Lake Partners for as much a $5.50 a share, citing an unidentified hedge-fund manager close to Sun Chief Executive Scott McNealy and Silver Lake.
- Dow Jones may become the target of a buyout if the stock continues to fall.
- GM may be forced to restructure the company within five years by having fewer brands and few models, or face the risk of bankruptcy.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AXL/.26
APC/2.00
ADM/.40
CAH/.89
CEN/.16
CVX/1.37
CCU/.13
ITT/1.04
TKTX/-.59

Splits
KBH 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 EST:
- Personal Income for March is estimated to rise .4% versus a .3% increase in February.
- Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise .4% versus a .5% gain in February.
- PCE Deflator(YoY) for March is estimated to rise 2.5% versus a 2.3% increase in February.
- PCE Core(YoY) for March is estimated to rise 1.7% versus a 1.6% gain in February.
- 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise 1.0% versus a .8% increase in 4Q.

9:45 EST:
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to rise to 88.8 versus a prior estimate of 88.7.

10:00 EST:
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for April is estimated to fall to 62.5 from 69.2 in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower on more worries over slowing global growth. I expect US equities to open modestly lower on continuation of today's late afternoon decline. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into tomorrow.

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