Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Stocks Gaining Mid-day on Falling Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,156.71 +.43%
DJIA 10,194.66 +.42%
NASDAQ 1,932.99 +.29%
Russell 2000 589.33 +.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,390.65 +.37%
S&P Barra Growth 559.28 +.35%
S&P Barra Value 593.17 +.53%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 573.71 +.30%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 697.67 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Technology 438.91 +.06%
Transports 3,416.55 +.35%
Utilities 368.90 +.90%
Put/Call 1.15 +53.33%
NYSE Arms 1.12 -37.26%
Volatility(VIX) 14.86 -.34%
ISE Sentiment 161.00 +25.78%
US Dollar 84.12 +.19%
CRB 306.23 -1.15%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.57 -4.85%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.50 -4.31%
Natural Gas 6.78 -4.78%
Heating Oil 148.40 -1.59%
Gold 434.10 -1.12%
Base Metals 123.54 -.87%
Copper 144.30 -1.16%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.23% +.-.79%

Leading Sectors
HMOs +2.75%
Papers +2.05%
Telecom +1.52%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -2.30%
Steel -4.18%
Gold & Silver -4.24%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are modestly higher mid-day, spurred by lower long-term interest rates and energy prices. The Portfolio is higher on gains in my Homebuilding longs and Base Metal shorts. I exited a few longs as they hit stops this morning and added some new Gaming and Internet longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. One of my new longs is VRSN and I am using a $27 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is modestly positive, considering lower energy prices, lower long-term rates, a firmer US dollar, disappointing durable goods orders and the recovery from morning losses. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, lower energy prices, lower long-term interest rates and bargain-hunting.

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