Monday, April 18, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,146.47 +.34%
DJIA 10,084.55 -.03%
NASDAQ 1,916.12 +.42%
Russell 2000 585.23 +.77%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,286.05 +.37%
S&P Barra Growth 555.31 +.31%
S&P Barra Value 588.58 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 576.39 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 699.22 +.92%
Morgan Stanley Technology 427.49 +.61%
Transports 3,428.14 +1.31%
Utilities 359.51 +.80%
Put/Call .94 -37.75%
NYSE Arms .91 -44.60%
Volatility(VIX) 16.68 -5.98%
ISE Sentiment 122.00 -14.08%
US Dollar 83.97 -.70%
CRB 297.80 -.34%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.15 -.67%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.40 +.01%
Natural Gas 6.91 -1.24%
Heating Oil 143.70 -1.57%
Gold 429.00 +.59%
Base Metals 124.64 +.07%
Copper 144.50 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.25% +.33%

Leading Sectors
Steel +3.26%
Gold & Silver +1.76%
Banks +1.27%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.81%
Hospitals -1.25%
HMOs -1.87%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are mixed mid-day as continuing worries over slowing growth are offsetting bargain-hunting. The Portfolio is slightly lower on losses in my Gaming and Retail longs. I took profits in a few shorts this morning and added a few new longs from various sectors, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. One of my new longs is PIXR and I am using a stop-loss of $92 on this position. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral, considering the continuing decline in commodity prices, the market’s oversold state and Asia’s steep losses. The fact that commodities are unable to rally after recent losses and today’s fall in the US dollar is a positive. Energy-related stocks are in a precarious position as gains in oil prices will spur further talk of an impending recession, which would likely result in substantially lower oil prices. As well, a clear break below $50/bbl. in crude futures would increase speculation that the stocks are too expensive given deteriorating fundamentals. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, lower commodity prices and bargain-hunting.

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