Thursday, April 14, 2005

Thursday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,162.05 -1.0%
DJIA 10,278.75 -1.20%
NASDAQ 1,946.71 -1.40%
Russell 2000 591.94 -1.76%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,429.62 -1.08%
S&P Barra Growth 562.17 -.84%
S&P Barra Value 595.51 -1.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.52 -.17%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 709.75 -2.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 439.03 -1.32%
Transports 3,441.30 -3.02%
Utilities 363.40 -1.05%
Put/Call 1.09 +15.96%
NYSE Arms 1.20 -27.24%
Volatility(VIX) 14.53 +9.17%
ISE Sentiment 152.00 -13.14%
US Dollar 85.00 +.71%
CRB 299.38 -.48%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.23 +.20%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.20 -.14%
Natural Gas 7.06 -.06%
Heating Oil 148.30 +.05%
Gold 425.60 unch.
Base Metals 123.55 -1.46%
Copper 142.85 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% -1.01%

Leading Sectors
Drugs +.51%
Foods -.13%
Energy -.25%

Lagging Sectors
HMOs -3.86%
Airlines -3.97%
Steel -6.42%

After-hours Movers
NUTR +5.0% after a US judge overturned the FDA’s ban on low-dose ephedra diet supplements.
CREE +6.3% after beating 3Q estimates and reiterating 4Q guidance.
LLY +6.9% after winning a court ruling that will prevent generic-drug makers from selling low-cost versions of its $4.4 billion-a-year Zyprexa schizophrenia drug before 2011.
CCRN -5.8% after announcing 3M share secondary.
IBM -3.75% after reporting first quarter profit rose 3%, less than expected, as the firm’s key computer-services business fell short of its sales goals and higher pension costs hurt it’s bottom line.

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MDT, GNW, IDIX, GD and Underperform on DJ.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A weeklong sweep led by the US Marshals Service resulted in the capture of 10,340 fugitives in the largest such operation in US history.
- Emerging market bonds had their biggest decline in 11 months as losses in General Motors bonds curbed demand worldwide for high-yield, high-risk securities.
- Arizona regulators approved an air-pollution permit for an investor group planning a new $2.5 billion oil refinery, a milestone no other US project has reached in three decades.
- The US Congress passed legislation to force some consumers to pay part of their debts in bankruptcy.
- Members of the Chicago Board of Trade, the second-biggest US futures market, today approved a plan to convert to a for-profit company, paving the way for a possible IPO.
- GM and the United Auto Workers Union will work within their current contract to reduce health-care costs, company and labor officials said.

Reuters:
- The White House budget office told federal agencies this week to stop specifying brand names in procurement contracts, a move applauded by Intel Corp. rival AMD.

Financial Times:
- Nasdaq Stock Market is negotiating to buy Reuters Group’s Instinet.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- SAP AG isn’t considering buying US-based competitor Siebel Systems.

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished sharply lower today as energy prices bounced and worries over slowing economic growth and earnings shortfalls rose. The Portfolio finished substantially higher on gains in my Base Metal, Oil Tanker and Chinese ADR shorts. I added a new Medical Information Systems short in the afternoon and added LLY long in after-hours trading, thus leaving the Portfolio Market Neutral. I am using a stop-loss of $56 on this new position. The tone of the market weakened into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished sharply lower, almost every sector fell and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the afternoon. Overall, today’s market action was negative, considering another decline in the CRB Index, the market’s oversold state and another fall in long-term interest rates. While stocks may weaken a bit further over the coming weeks into earnings outlooks, I continue to believe the major averages are very close to meaningful bottoms for the year. I do not believe the US is falling into recession, which is what recent price movements seem to suggest. Longer-term investors should use any further weakness to begin building positions in favorite longs.

No comments: