Thursday, April 28, 2005

Stocks Fall on Worries Over Slowing Global Growth and a Bounce in Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,143.22 -1.14%
DJIA 10,070.37 -1.26%
NASDAQ 1,904.18 -1.36%
Russell 2000 575.02 -2.06%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,245.73 -1.21%
S&P Barra Growth 552.38 -1.19%
S&P Barra Value 586.57 -1.09%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 569.88 -.74%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 689.40 -1.21%
Morgan Stanley Technology 433.28 -1.26%
Transports 3,388.58 -.85%
Utilities 366.75 -.40%
Put/Call 1.12 +4.67%
NYSE Arms 2.10 +117.79%
Volatility(VIX) 16.86 +13.38%
ISE Sentiment 165.00 +2.48%
US Dollar 84.35 +.27%
CRB 304.40 -.48%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.90 +.56%
Unleaded Gasoline 154.70 +.33%
Natural Gas 6.78 -.15%
Heating Oil 148.50 +.75%
Gold 432.80 -.30%
Base Metals 123.61 +.06%
Copper 144.00 -.21%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.14% -1.87%

Leading Sectors
Drugs +.02%
Hospitals -.05%
Telecom -.45%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -3.11%
Networking -3.21%
Oil Tankers -4.26%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on NFX, XOM, AET and MSFT.
- Reiterated Underperform on HC.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Chicago Board of Trade, the second-biggest US futures exchange, plans an IPO in the second half of this year as it tries to duplicate the success of bigger rival the Chicago Merc.
- Microsoft said third-quarter earnings almost doubled as legal costs fell and sales of programs to run networks increased. Revenue next year may beat analysts’ expectations.
- Boeing must compete again for US Air Force work worth over $3 billion to upgrade avionics on C-130 transports because of a conflict of interest in the original contract.

AP:
- Judy Woodruff, anchor of CNN’s “Inside Politics” program, is leaving CNN in June when her contract expires.

Financial Times:
- Debt market investors are becoming more selective about which bonds they buy from countries that share the euro ahead of a French referendum on the EU constitution.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher on gains in my Commodity-related shorts. I added a few ETF shorts from various sectors in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market deteriorated meaningfully into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished at its daily lows, almost every sector fell and volume was average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action was negative. Investors are pricing in the possibility the US is slipping into recession. I strongly believe this is not the case. Growth is slowing, but not plunging. This “soft patch” will be deeper and last a bit longer than last year’s, however I continue to believe economic growth will pick back up in the second half. Modest growth, lower inflation, low long-term interest rates, a firmer dollar and lower commodity prices will make for a much better second half in US stocks. Sentiment has become much too negative and valuations are very reasonable considering fundamentals. Oil below $50/bbl. or less hawkish comments from the Fed should boost sentiment substantially.

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