Thursday, April 28, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Worries Over Slowing Global Growth

Indices
S&P 500 1,149.60 -.59%
DJIA 10,131.89 -.67%
NASDAQ 1,915.29 -.78%
Russell 2000 579.12 -1.30%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,305.96 -.68%
S&P Barra Growth 555.67 -.60%
S&P Barra Value 589.47 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 573.27 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 693.55 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Technology 436.01 -.64%
Transports 3,414.66 -.08%
Utilities 369.68 +.40%
Put/Call .91 -14.95%
NYSE Arms 1.56 +61.98%
Volatility(VIX) 15.71 +5.65%
ISE Sentiment 184.00 +14.29%
US Dollar 84.30 +.21%
CRB 303.68 -.73%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.85 -1.57%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.25 -2.56%
Natural Gas 6.72 -.96%
Heating Oil 146.00 -.95%
Gold 432.60 -.35%
Base Metals 123.61 +.06%
Copper 144.50 +.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.19% -.66%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.74%
Drugs +.44%
Hospitals +.27%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -2.07%
Homebuilders -2.31%
Oil Tankers -2.76%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are lower mid-day, spurred by worries over slowing global growth. The Portfolio is substantially higher on gains in my Base Metal and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is negative, considering lower energy prices, lower long-term rates, a rising US dollar and a mildly disappointing GDP report. The fact that the US dollar is rising today given the GDP report, that Europe’s growth may turn negative and that the French will likely vote “no” to the EU constitution bodes well for a firmer dollar in the near-term. A firm US dollar, slowing global demand and OPEC pumping at 30-year highs will continue to pressure crude prices. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, lower energy prices, a firmer dollar, lower long-term interest rates and bargain-hunting.

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