Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Wednesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,137.50 -1.33%
DJIA 10,012.36 -1.14%
NASDAQ 1,913.76 -.96%
Russell 2000 584.96 -1.68%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,215.84 -1.34%
S&P Barra Growth 549.78 -1.27%
S&P Barra Value 583.47 -1.38%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 568.13 -1.38%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 695.92 -1.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 429.14 -.79%
Transports 3,395.26 -1.55%
Utilities 360.36 -.92%
Put/Call .81 -14.74%
NYSE Arms 1.88 +70.84%
Volatility(VIX) 16.92 +13.10%
ISE Sentiment 134.00 -14.10%
US Dollar 83.47 -.35%
CRB 306.99 +.97%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.50 -.98%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.85 -.81%
Natural Gas 6.98 -1.09%
Heating Oil 149.80 -.71%
Gold 436.30 -.09%
Base Metals 128.48 +1.73%
Copper 150.50 -.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% -.61%

Leading Sectors
Internet +.34%
Networking +.08%
Wireless -.36%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -2.43%
I-Banks -2.74%
Gaming -2.80%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GD, MO, MERQ and DOX.

Piper Jaffray:
- Rated GOOG Outperform, target $250.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush urged Congress to send him comprehensive energy legislation by early August to help counter rising oil and gas prices, which he said are becoming a “tax on jobs.”
- Hertz may be sold by parent Ford Motor to raise money as the automaker tries to halt a decline in US automotive market share.
- The NYSE agreed to merge with Archipelago Holdings and make the 212-year-old institution a public, for-profit company.
- Delta Air, Northwest and other US carriers could defer pension payments and avoid bankruptcy filings to resolve pension shortfalls under a bill introduced in the US Senate today.
- BearingPoint said it found errors in financial statements spanning the past two years and the SEC began an investigation into its accounting.
- Brazil’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark lending rate for an eighth straight month in a bid to stem inflation in South America’s largest economy.
- US factories, retailers and service companies were able to pass on to consumers some of the higher costs of energy and other raw materials, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book report.

Interfax:
- Russian ministries proposed a plan to stockpile supplies of oil products to meet swings in demand.

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished lower today after the Fed’s Beige Book report spooked investors. The Portfolio finished slightly lower on losses in my Homebuilding, Gaming and Computer longs. I added a few new shorts and exited a number of longs from various sectors in the afternoon as they hit stop-losses, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. One of my new shorts is X and I am using a $47 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market deteriorated into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished at its daily lows, almost every sector fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action was negative, considering recent positive earnings reports, stabilizing energy prices and lower long-term interest rates. The Fed’s Beige Book report rekindled fears that the Fed is misinterpreting recent data. The economy is slowing and inflation is not a problem. The bond and stocks markets are looking through the temporary rise in measures of inflation and signaling a return to a deflationary environment. I continue to believe the Fed will realize this and slow their rate of hikes over the next couple of months. While stocks may head marginally lower through earnings season, I continue to believe the major averages are close to a meaningful bottom and that the second-half of the year will be much better for US equities.

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