Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -.7% 2) Banks -.4% 3) Hospitals -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLSE, ACOR, CARA, MOMO, OMER, IIVI, COLL and FNSR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLP 2) GD 3) ACOR 4) PG 5) YHOO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NH 2) RCII 3) NAO 4) GLW 5) UA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.3% 2) Coal +1.3% 3) Paper +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ELF, WWAV, FMC, LULU, COOL, DXPE, MGNX, ICHR, CM, TWOU, TITN, MEDP, EROS, AJRD, EVH, NEFF, TPIC, LL, PSIX, ATH and BPMC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CMCSA 2) CC 3) AMBA 4) YUM 5) BIIB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AA 2) HUBS 3) DXPE 4) HPE 5) VRTX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -27.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 47.0% of Issues Advancing, 47.9% Declining
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 56.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.8%
• Vix 11.9 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.17 +28.6%
• TRIN/Arms .94 -26.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 -.75 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.0 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.03 -.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BBRY)/.00

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST 

• Personal Income for February is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in January. 
• Personal Spending for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.
• PCE Core MoM for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in January. 

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for March is estimated to fall to 56.9 versus 57.4 in February.

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment is estimated at 97.6 versus a prior estimate of 97.6.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, German Unemployment report and the UK GDP report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.40 -.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.55 -.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.01 -.77%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.05 -3.76%

• ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 +1.0%
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +6.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 +25.87%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.03 -.88%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 368.0 -1.64%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.14 +.71%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.36 +8.9%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.10 -.75%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.09 -1.32%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.51 +.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 35.25 +1.75 basis points

• TED Spread 38.0 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 -1.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.21 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .77% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 114.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $81.78/Metric Tonne -.57%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.6 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.60 -4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.50 -4.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 +1.0 basis point
  
• 53.5% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 59.2% chance at July 26 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +171 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Draghi's German Problem May Fizzle as ECB Sticks to Its Plan. Mario Draghi’s German difficulty may be melting away with the change of seasons. The European Central Bank president had barely begun the New Year when a winter spike in consumer prices provoked resurgent calls in Europe’s biggest economy for a halt to his institution’s extraordinary stimulus. Now that spring is in the air, the surge has reversed with the biggest drop in Germany’s inflation rate since 2013, implying that one-off effects from energy have been masking underlying weakness -- just as Draghi and his colleagues had predicted.

• Oil Tops $50 as Kuwait Says OPEC in Talks for Meeting Consensus. (video) Futures in New York climbed as much as 1.1 percent. Kuwait and other countries support prolonging production cuts that are scheduled to expire in June, the Persian Gulf emirate’s Oil Minister Issam Almarzooq told state-run news agency KUNA. Prices rose yesterday after U.S. government data showed that gasoline inventories dropped more than expected, while refineries boosted the amount of crude they processed by the most in almost three years.

• Obamacare Stalwart Anthem(ANTM) Seen Likely to Retreat for 2018. (video) Anthem Inc. is likely to pull back from Obamacare’s individual insurance markets in a big way for next year, according to a report from analysts who said they met with the company, a move that could limit coverage options for consumers at a politically crucial time for the law. Anthem “is leaning toward exiting a high percentage of the 144 rating regions in which it currently participates,” Jefferies analysts David Windley and David Styblo said Thursday in a research note.

• U.S. college grads see slim-to-nothing wage gain since recession.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Trump’s Border Wall: A Tall Order. Outside of one sector, much of the border is already fenced, or has few crossings. 

• Fracking 2.0: Shale Drillers Pioneer New Ways to Profit in Era of Cheap Oil. Texas producer EOG has led the industry in finding ways to extract oil faster and less expensively from shale. If more can follow its lead and ramp up output even at lower prices, the sector could become a lasting force that challenges OPEC’s ability to control market prices.

Fox News:

• With ObamaCare overhaul sidelined, can Tom Price go it alone? (video)

CNBC: 

• These stores will survive the destruction of the American mall, Morgan Stanley's retail guru says.

• Jeff Bezos is now the second-richest person in the world. (video)

• Buy the dip in energy stocks because they are cheap and oil should stay above $50, Jefferies says.

Zero Hedge:

• An Angry Freedom Caucus Responds To Trump's 2018 Threat.

• CBO Warns Of Fiscal Catastrophe As A Result Of Exponential Debt Growth In The U.S. (graph)

• The Definitive Brexit "Wall Chart".

• Did The EPA Just Go Rogue Again.

• Dollar Tumbles On Report Trump Studying Ways To "Penalize Currency Manipulators". (graph)

• Trump Slams Freedom Caucus: "We Must Fight Them".

• Q4 GDP Revised Higher To 2.1% As Consumers Splurge On "Foreign Travel And Recreation Services". (graph)

• You Know It's A Global Debt Bubble When...

Business Insider:

• McDonald's(MCD) is making a huge change to its burgers that franchisees aren't going to be happy about.

• Environmental groups are suing over Trump's decision to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.

telecompetitor:

• FirstNet Plans Finally Revealed, AT&T(T) to Spend $40B on National Public Safety Network, Create 10K Jobs.