Friday, April 01, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,172.86 -.65%
DJIA 10,414.35 -.85%
NASDAQ 1,985.92 -.66%
Russell 2000 609.62 -.89%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,561.19 -.65%
S&P Barra Growth 565.07 -.71%
S&P Barra Value 602.95 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 572.37 -.95%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 742.49 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.29 -.47%
Transports 3,686.43 -.79%
Utilities 358.71 +.09%
Put/Call 1.0 +36.99%
NYSE Arms 1.79 +44.98%
Volatility(VIX) 14.09 +.50%
ISE Sentiment 107.00 -17.05%
US Dollar 84.43 +.44%
CRB 310.47 -.99%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.05 +2.98%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.50 +3.12%
Natural Gas 7.80 +1.92%
Heating Oil 165.90 +2.65%
Gold 430.428.30 -.65%
Base Metals 127.93 -1.84%
Copper 148.35 -1.26%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -.17%

Leading Sectors
Energy +1.75%
Iron/Steel +1.38%
Homebuilders +.28%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -1.75%
Airlines -2.41%
Insurance -3.47%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are lower mid-day on worries over slowing economic growth, corporate scandals and higher energy prices. The Portfolio is higher on gains in my Chinese ADR shorts, Base Metal shorts, Homebuilding longs and Software longs. I exited some Tech longs this morning as they hit stop-losses and added a few new shorts, thus bringing the Portfolio’s market exposure to Market Neutral. One of my new shorts is SNHY and I am using a $33.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is above recent levels. Consumer-related stocks are underperforming, while Energy-related shares are outperforming and measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is negative considering another decline in long-term interest rates, the market’s oversold state and rising US dollar. Measures of investor anxiety continue to approach levels normally associated with meaningful bottoms. I still believe the lows for the year will be made over the coming weeks, making for a much more positive second half in equities. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as falling long-term interest rates offset higher energy prices.

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