Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Inflation Decelerating, Manufacturing Stabilizing, Oil Inventories Down

- The Consumer Price Index for May fell .1% versus estimates of unchanged and a .5% increase in April.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for May rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and unchanged in April.
- Business Inventories for April rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .5% gain in March.
- Empire Manufacturing for June rose to 11.7 versus estimates of 1.0 and a reading of -11.1 in May.
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for April fell to $47.4B versus estimates of $70.0B and $40.6B in March.
- Industrial Production for May rose .4% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .3% decline in April.
- Capacity Utilization for May rose to 79.4% versus estimates of 79.3% and 79.1% in April.
- Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending June 10, 2005.
- The EIA reported crude inventories fell 1.78M barrels versus estimates of a 1.0M barrel decline. Gasoline inventories fell 950K barrels versus estimates of a rise of 675K barrels. Distillate inventories rose 2.43M barrels versus estimates of a gain of 1.5M barrels.

BOTTOM LINE: Cheaper energy costs unexpectedly drove down consumer prices last month, the first decline since July 2004. This should further quell inflation fears. Consumer prices were up 2.8% for the 12 months ended in May, below the 40-year average of 3.0%. The cost of all goods including cars, apparel and food fell .4% last month.

Inventories at US businesses rose .3% in April, the smallest increase this year, as sales surged. The increase in sales pushed the inventory-sales ratio down to 1.3 months, an all-time low.

The Empire Manufacturing Index rose by the largest amount since May 2003. The reading is back to moderate levels from a weak one. The new orders component of the index rose to 8.2 from minus 8.2 a month earlier. The prices paid index fell to 30.6 from 41.6 in May.

International investors accumulated US assets at a slower-than-expected pace in April, amid evidence that hedge funds cut holdings of Treasuries. Japan, the largest foreign holder of US government securities, bought a net 5.7 billion in April.

US industrial production rose .4% in May, more than expected, helped by a rebound in demand for business equipment and consumer goods. Business investment is picking up again after a surge in 2004, when tax incentives siphoned orders from earlier this year. Production of autos and parts increased 1.2% in May after a 2.3% decline in April.

Distillate inventories were the main concern for traders. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil reverse lower later today.

No comments: