Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Stocks Close Modestly Higher on Strength in Retail

Indices
S&P 500 1,203.91 +.26%
DJIA 10,547.57 +.24%
NASDAQ 2,069.04 unch.
Russell 2000 634.39 +.85%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,934.14%
S&P Barra Growth 578.52 +.16%
S&P Barra Value 621.06 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.02 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 727.62 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Technology 477.79 -.89%
Transports 3,510.99 -.35%
Utilities 375.56 +.30%
Put/Call .82 -6.82%
NYSE Arms .93 +52.61%
Volatility(VIX) 11.79 +1.20%
ISE Sentiment 185.00 +56.78%
US Dollar 89.30 +.39%
CRB 304.96 +.22%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.02 +.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.90 -.12%
Natural Gas 7.27 +.58%
Heating Oil 163.93 +.04%
Gold 428.70 -.14%
Base Metals 123.18 -.24%
Copper 153.15 +.33%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.11% +.52%

Leading Sectors
Retail +2.15%
Gaming +1.79%
Homebuilders +1.36%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -1.09%
Oil Tankers -1.22%
Gold & Silver -1.49%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Underperform on WTW.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said he has a “sharp disagreement” with French President Jacques Chirac over the European Union’s budget that may be hard to resolve as EU leaders debate how the region is run and funded.
- Pfizer said its Exubera diabetes treatment, the first type of insulin to be inhaled rather than injected, was effective and didn’t harm patients’ lungs in three trials.
- President Bush called for an end to “partisan bickering” over Social Security as he extended his months-long campaign to save the system.
- Crude oil fell as ministers proposed that OPEC raise production quotas and give the group’s president the authority to further boost targets at a meeting tomorrow.
- TXU’s senior, unsecured debt rating was cut below investment grade by S&P on concern that the company is boosting its share price at the expense of creditworthiness.
- Viacom said its board approved Chairman Sumner Redstone’s plan to split into two parts, with CBS Television anchoring one business and the MTV cable networks in the second.

AP:
- The US will set new passport standards that include a digital photograph to match a person’s unique physical characteristics and an embedded identification chip.

Financial Times:
- The global music industry recovered in 2004 after a 20% decline between 1999 and 2003 due to online piracy and illegal music downloads, citing the OECD.
- European leaders must stop using anti-capitalist rhetoric if they want to avoid losing US investment.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher on gains in my Retail, Networking longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline finished higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was very light. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today’s market action was neutral considering the decline in energy prices and PPI decline. I expect the CPI to come in below consensus expectations tomorrow. Industrial Production may meet estimates, while I expect Empire Manufacturing to fall below expectations. The 10-year T-Note yield has recently bounced from around 3.8% to 4.12%. I would be surprised to see rates above 4.2%. I may look to add a long position in TLT on any further pullback.

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