Sunday, June 12, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a number of important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Produce Price Index, Advance Retail Sales
Wed. - Consumer Price Index, Business Inventories, Empire Manufacturing, Net Foreign Security Purchases, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed's Beige Book
Thur. - Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed.
Fri. - Current Account Balance, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - None of note
Tues. - BearingPoint(BE), Best Buy(BBY), Krispy Kreme(KKD), Lehman Brothers(LEH), Pier 1 Imports(PIR)
Wed. - Bear Stearns(BSC)
Thur. - Adobe Systems(ADBE), Carnival Corp.(CCL), Goldman Sachs(GS), KB Home(KBH)
Fri. - Circuit City(CC)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Thomas Weisel Growth Conference, Morgan Stanley Small-cap Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, CSFB Retail, Apparel and Restaurants Conference
Tue. - Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, Morgan Stanley Small-cap Conference, Thomas Weisel Growth Conference, Deutsche Bank Electric Power Conference, Fed's Bies Speaks, Fed's Lacker speaks, Fed's Poole speaks
Wed. - Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, Deutsche Bank Electric Power Conference, Fed's Minehan speaks, Morgan Stanley Small-cap Conference, Merrill Lynch Paper & Packaging Conference, Thomas Weisel Growth Conference
Thur. - Deutsche Bank Electric Power Conference, Goldman Sachs Health Care Conference, Piper Jaffray Global Internet Summit, Merrill Lynch Paper & Packaging Conference, Semi Book-to-Bill, Fed's Hoenig speaks, Fed's Minehan speaks
Fri. - None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as lower inflation readings and declining commodity prices offset less optimism for a Fed "pause." The PPI/CPI and Fed comments will be the main focus of traders this week. A further rise in the US dollar may lead to a continuation of recent small-cap outperformance. I expect tech stocks to underperform again this week on further consolidation after recent gains. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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