Friday, June 24, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Earnings Worries

Indices
S&P 500 1,194.92 -.48%
DJIA 10,329.29 -.88%
NASDAQ 2,057.31 -.64%
Russell 2000 627.12 -1.10%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,852.58 -.54%
S&P Barra Growth 569.79 -.58%
S&P Barra Value 620.94 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 572.37 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 711.89 -1.42%
Morgan Stanley Technology 477.21 -1.01%
Transports 3,410.27 -1.36%
Utilities 381.87 -.40%
Put/Call .89 +18.67%
NYSE Arms 1.53 +32.80%
Volatility(VIX) 12.07 -.49%
ISE Sentiment 226.00 +43.04%
US Dollar 88.80 -.36%
CRB 311.97 +.17%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.80 +.64%
Unleaded Gasoline 165.70 +.02%
Natural Gas 7.37 -1.31%
Heating Oil 166.15 -.84%
Gold 442.00 unch.
Base Metals 124.30 +.95%
Copper 154.45 -.39%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.92% -.73%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +1.66%
Gold & Silver +.71%
Biotech +.33%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -2.07%
Steel -2.29%
Airlines -3.51%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Internet longs, Steel shorts and Oil Tanker shorts are offsetting losses in my Homebuilding and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is negative. China's Iron and Steel Association said last night that China may use 300 million tons of steel this year and produce 322 million tons, citing the National Development and Reform Commission. This is the first time the country's top planning body has indicated demand will fall short of supply. Earlier in the week the vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association said 90% of the country's steel producers will be unprofitable soon. Look for the Chinese government to try and cap production soon. This should further curtail China's energy demand. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering.

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