Friday, June 10, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Weakness in Tech

Indices
S&P 500 1,195.30 -.47%
DJIA 10,477.74 -.24%
NASDAQ 2,060.37 -.80%
Russell 2000 625.43 -.13%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,842.16 -.41%
S&P Barra Growth 575.29 -.74%
S&P Barra Value 615.72 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 580.23 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 719.76 +.22%
Morgan Stanley Technology 477.45 -1.33%
Transports 3,517.74 -.32%
Utilities 373.20 +.59%
Put/Call .71 -19.32%
NYSE Arms 1.0 +35.92%
Volatility(VIX) 12.18 +.83%
ISE Sentiment 153.00 -14.04%
US Dollar 88.68 +.69%
CRB 302.93 -.40%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.80 -.88%
Unleaded Gasoline 154.80 -1.49%
Natural Gas 6.99 -.71%
Heating Oil 161.70 -.53%
Gold 429.30 +.75%
Base Metals 123.80 +.45%
Copper 156.25 +1.0%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.02% +2.03%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.17%
Steel +.88%
Restaurants +.68%

Lagging Sectors
Software -1.24%
HMOs -1.36%
Semis -1.95%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Internet and Semiconductor longs. I took profits in a Base Metal short and added to an Oil Tanker short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is negative considering the decline in energy prices, GM’s positive news and Intel’s guidance boost. The US budget deficit narrowed to $35.3 billion in may from a year earlier, a larger improvement than expected, as tax revenue soared. This was the smallest May budget shortfall since 2001. The Treasury said that tax receipts rose 32% to $152.7 billion during May compared with a year earlier. I expect the 2004 US budget deficit to come in substantially better than the $427 billion forecast by the White House. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as profit-taking offsets positive fundamental developments.

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