Thursday, June 16, 2005

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Lower Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,210.96 +.36%
DJIA 10,578.65 +.12%
NASDAQ 2,089.15 +.69%
Russell 2000 644.03 +1.07%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,018.08 +.47%
S&P Barra Growth 581.07 +.27%
S&P Barra Value 625.56 +.45%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.62 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 741.15 +1.23%
Morgan Stanley Technology 481.19 +.46%
Transports 3,566.69 +1.12%
Utilities 373.11 -.22%
Put/Call .96 +15.66%
NYSE Arms .86 -2.17%
Volatility(VIX) 11.15 -2.71%
ISE Sentiment 173.00 -18.78%
US Dollar 88.68 +.05%
CRB 308.59 +.52%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.53 -.09%
Unleaded Gasoline 159.60 -.11%
Natural Gas 7.56 -.63%
Heating Oil 162.20 -.22%
Gold 437.60 -.07%
Base Metals 125.06 +.77%
Copper 157.10 +.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.06% -.75%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.34%
Biotech +2.93%
Steel +2.33%

Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -.31%
Telecom -.33%
Oil Tankers -.75%

Evening Review
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GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on KLAC, DNA and SVU.
- Rated MNST Outperform, target $35-40.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ford Motor may have used cruise-control switches that can cause a fire in 16 million vehicles.
- US Treasury notes rose after the Philly Fed. Index unexpected slowed.
- Genentech agreed to buy a manufacturing plant in Oceanside, California, from Biogen Idec for about $408 million to make its Avastin cancer medicine.
- The United Auto Workers union said again it won’t reopen its contract with GM, while saying it would be a “huge mistake” to take “any unilateral action on health care benefits.”
- A magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck San Bernardino County near the town of Yucaipa, 71 miles east of LA.
- Crude oil traded near an 11-week high amid signs that surging global fuel consumption will strain the production capacity of OPEC and other exporters.
- The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency filed a lawsuit to stop NY Democratic Attorney General Spitzer’s probe of mortgage-lending data from nationally chartered banks, saying he is exceeding his authority.
- XL Capital, PartnerRe, Philadelphia Consolidated and two other insurers received subpoenas from investigators.
- European Union leaders put ratification of the EU’s first constitution on hold as the stalemate over the $128 billion budget deepened and Britain and France fought over how to run the 25-nation bloc.

Wall Street Journal:
- Bank of America agreed to buy 9% of China Construction Bank for $2.5 billion.

AP:
- Two temporary memorials to victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks are being built near the site of the former World Trade Center.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- GM’s Opel and Saab units will introduce new sports utility vehicle models next year.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher on gains in my Gaming, Homebuilding longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I exited a few shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline finished higher, almost every sector gained and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today’s market action was positive considering the major indices and breadth closed at session highs in the face of rising energy prices and a disappointing Philly Fed. According to the latest data from the Energy Intelligence Group, global demand for crude has risen 1.59% over the last 12 months to 83.2 million barrels/day. However, global supply has risen 4.17% to 84.9 million barrels/day. The price of a barrel of crude is up over 60% during this same period of time. I expect tomorrow’s consumer confidence report to exceed estimates. As well, another decline in long-term rates could spur gains in US stocks.

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