Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Oil Decline and Strong Consumer Confidence Reading

Indices
S&P 500 1,199.49 +.74%
DJIA 10,372.87 +.81%
NASDAQ 2,065.79 +1.02%
Russell 2000 637.70 +1.49%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,916.25 +.79%
S&P Barra Growth 573.40 +.93%
S&P Barra Value 621.98 +.57%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 576.07 +1.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 719.68 +1.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 477.02 +.74%
Transports 3,457.92 +1.83%
Utilities 384.84 +.70%
Put/Call .81 -14.74%
NYSE Arms .67 -47.29%
Volatility(VIX) 11.77 -5.99%
ISE Sentiment 200.00 +56.25%
US Dollar 89.00 +.63%
CRB 304.08 -2.36%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.10 -4.03%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.10 -3.22%
Natural Gas 7.02 -1.58%
Heating Oil 161.50 -3.65%
Gold 437.70 -.91%
Base Metals 123.51 -.64%
Copper 155.40 -.58%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.96% +1.51%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.68%
Steel +2.68%
Homebuilders +2.20%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -.97%
Energy -1.50%
Oil Service -1.78%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Homebuilding, Retail and Networking longs. I covered my Steel shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is positive. The Johnson Redbook Same-store-sales Index rose 3.8% year over year last week vs. a 3.7% rise the prior week. This is also up from a 1.5% gain in late April and the eighth week in a row the index has exceeded 3%. Oil is breaking down through a relentless uptrend that had been in place since mid-May. It has a ways to go before longer-term trends break, but it's a start. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, declining energy prices and quarter-end window-dressing.

No comments: