Monday, June 13, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA said it has more than 450,000 users of its wireless fidelity Internet service, a sign of rising demand for more flexible ways to access the Web.
- China said it will limit annual export growth of 10 textile products to the European Union to between 8% and 12.5% through 2007.
- Fidelity Investments raised its stake in Google by 46% in April and May as shares of the Internet search engine soared.
- Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, supports a proposal to boost the exporter group's production ceiling to meet global demand and lower crude prices.
- The Group of Eight industrial nations said "vigorous action" is needed to insulate a weakening world economy from high oil prices and imbalances in growth and trade.
- Wal-Mart Stores said June sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as general merchandise led the week's gains.
- Washington State's wine boom is boosting small producers and the state's economy.
- The Fed will probably continue to increase interest rates "at a measured pace" to keep rising inflation risks in check, the Fed's Santomero said.
- US Treasury Snow said a shrinking budget deficit proves the US is "doing its part" to spur the world economy and asked Europe and Asia step up efforts to boost growth and narrow international imbalances.
- Currency traders, investors and strategists are more bearish on the euro than they've been in more than two years, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
- A US Treasury bond rally that sent benchmark 10-year note yields to the lowest in more than a year may get an added boost as the dollar's 11% surge against the euro this year attracts foreign investors.
- Crude oil futures fell in NY after Tropical Storm Arlene passed through the Gulf of Mexico without damaging rigs, refineries or pipelines.
- Nokia Oyj may beat its second-quarter profit forecast as increased demand for phones with music players and cameras allows the company to spend less on marketing, an analyst survey showed.
- Japan unexpectedly cut its first quarter economic growth estimate after sluggish overseas demand prompted manufacturers to keep inventories in check.
- Global ocean freight charges have plunged by nearly 25% in the past six weeks because of a slowdown in shipping of iron ore, grain, coal and other commoditities.

New York Times:
- Floridians are spending millions of dollars on safety products to protect their homes from the damaging affects of hurricanes after storms did more than $20 billion in property damage last year.
- Apple Computer's decision to use Intel chips in its computers will boost Apple's share of the home entertainment market by giving its customers access to Window's based software and games.
- Airlines, including Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines, could offset higher costs and break even if they raised revenue an average of five or six percent.

Washington Post:
- US Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue said business groups are prepared to cut off campaign donations to House lawmakers who oppose the Central American Free Trade Agreement.
- The 1.8 million-member Service Employees International Union took a step toward breaking from the AFL-CIO, the country's biggest labor federation, and four other unions may do the same.

Financial Times:
- The UK's Financial Services Authority may allow hedge funds to sell their products directly to consumers for the first time.

Guardian:
- Finance ministers from the world's richest countries agreed to wipe out as much as $55 billion in debt owed by the world's poorest nations.

London-based Sunday Times:
- PartyGaming Plc, a gambling Web site, may lose online business with US customers paying by bank and credit cards under proposed legislation.

Der Spiegel:
- European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said members of the single European currency can't legally be prevented from pulling out.
- European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said "weaker" economic growth is curbing risks to the bank's inflation outlook.
- More Germans would vote to reject the European Union constitution than endorse it.

The Tehran Times:
- China National Petroleum won a contract to carry out petroleum exploration and development in Iran.

Gulf News:
- Saudis plan to withdraw investments from France and sell their shares in local banks after French authorities froze assets of 23 non-resident Saudis for failing to abide by French tax laws.

Nihon Keizai:
- Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and US Treasury Secretary Snow agreed on the need for China to reform its currency peg soon.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China's banks should draw lessons from Japanese lenders by stepping up supervision of credit risks, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of China's banking regulator.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on VLO, ANF, SMH, ISIL, PNRA, WTW, CRI, UNA, GTN, DJ, TIVO, VZ, HAR, mixed on BBBY, TRB and negative on DPZ, NYT, ELX.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on IWM and mixed on YHOO, IBM, NILE, MSFT, ENDP.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on GE, EOC and mixed on AAPL, BHP, MSFT, AG.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on AIG, SYMC, ANF, HOTT and mixed on IBM.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on NKE, TRB, FON, DUK and KRI.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on ARO.
- Reiterated Underperform on LSI.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
QSII/.32

Splits
UTX 2-for-1

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher on strength in exporters in the region after the US dollar rallied further. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher on a decline in energy prices and comments by the Fed's Santomero that inflation is "well contained and US growth will remain modest." The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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