Friday, June 17, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day on Strength in Housing

Indices
S&P 500 1,217.39 +.53%
DJIA 10,634.58 +.52%
NASDAQ 2,092.34 +.15%
Russell 2000 645.00 +.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,074.20 +.47%
S&P Barra Growth 583.71 +.45%
S&P Barra Value 629.42 +.61%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.16 +.27%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.15 +.27%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.42 +.26%
Transports 3,587.59 +.59%
Utilities 377.23 +1.11%
Put/Call 1.02 +6.25%
NYSE Arms .80 -7.38%
Volatility(VIX) 11.21 +.54%
ISE Sentiment 104.00 -39.88%
US Dollar 87.94 -.79%
CRB 310.61%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.85 +2.24%
Unleaded Gasoline 163.50 +2.08%
Natural Gas 7.66 +.62%
Heating Oil 164.50 +1.20%
Gold 440.00 +.48%
Base Metals 127.23 +1.74%
Copper 160.40 +2.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.07% +.09%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.08%
Oil Tankers +2.0%
HMOs +1.13%

Lagging Sectors
Software -.47%
Disk Drives -.80%
Airlines -1.89%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Homebuilding and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is nearly even, most sectors are higher and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral, considering another move higher in energy and a positive consumer confidence report. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.63% this week from 5.56% last week. This is the first weekly increase since mid-May and the largest gain since the week of March 18. I expect this to have little to no impact on housing as rates are still historically low. If anything, it could boost activity. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close as crude short-covering subsides.

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